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Saturday, 3 September 2016

Answering A Kadir Jasin's "Kewangan Kerajaan Pusat genting"

Yesterday, I had posted a reply to the irresponsible fake "Tun Daim" whatsapp message that is circulating. I had pointed out that the message sole purpose seems to be spreading lies to incite hatred and fears about the economy which would stop people from spending and investing - a self-fulfiling prophecy that if left unchecked, will cause damage to our economy.

Today, yet another stalwart of Mahathir has published an article in Sinar Harian that also seems to have the same purpose as the "Tun Daim" message.

A Kadir Jasin, a long-time Mahathir supporter, said that Malaysia's government debt had increased from RM250 billion in 2010 to RM656 billion in June this year.

Well, A Kadir is wrong. The govt debt in 2010 is RM407.1 billion or 53.15% of our GDP. How can Kadir make such a shocking mistake or was he trying to deceive?

Even at RM656 billion, our government debt is still within the 55% debt to GDP ratio limit as our economy has expanded since 2010.

Does Kadir also realize the size of Malaysia's GDP/economy today is almost 3 1/2 times the size of what it was when Mahathir retired in 2003?

As long as our ratio is within limits, the overall debt can grow as our yearly income and economy size will also grow.

A simple illustration to show this:

Who is more likely to go bankrupt first?

A person whose income is RM36k per year but  have debt of RM40k (Malaysia's GDP in 1987 is USD36 billion and govt debt was USD40 billion) or a person whose income is now RM350k per year and have debt of RM130k? 
Even though the actual debt amount is now 3 times more but the person whose income is RM36k per year will go bankrupt first.

Here is an excerpt from the 2012 book "Malaysia's Development Challenges: Graduating from the Middle". You can also google for Malaysia's debt-to-GDP in the 1980s and what Mahathir did in his first 7 years in charge.

We did not go bankrupt and our country crash and burn at more than 100% Debt-to-GDP so why should we go bankrupt now at 55%?

Here is a more comprehensive chart showing this relationship:

As mentioned yesterday, according to the CIA's world factbook, Malaysia at 54% is at 71st place in the countries with the highest debt to GDP ratio.

According to PakaTun logic, this means that these 70 countries will have to go bankrupt before Malaysia's turn.


Those who hate our government and wishes for Malaysia will just simply have to wait in line behind those countries mentioned above.

Kadir also said that Malaysia is running a budget deficit but conceded that it has reduced from 6.7% in 2009 to 3.2% in 2015.

But does Kadir know that Najib ran a bigger deficit in 2009 and 2010 to save our economy from the Great Global Recession (the worst since the Great Depression in the 1930s) but since 2011, have run a deficit that is smaller (and getting increasingly smaller) compared to the last 5 years that Mahathir ran the country up to 2003?

As you can see, Malaysia's budget deficit is getting progressively smaller due to good management. This is why the World Bank and IMF praises Najib's government on economic management and the major international credit ratings agencies all have A- investment grade ratings and a stable outlook for Malaysia.

If Kadir really wants to warn someone regarding unrestrained government spending then I suggest he writes an open letter to Mahathir's allies in the DAP Penang Government as their state annual spending has jumped many folds since they took over in 2008. They are definitely more in need of an "A Kadir Jasin" warning.

Kadir ended his article with saying that the government should be truthful to the rakyat on the true state of the economy and that the "Ekonomi tidak berbohong" or "The economy doesn't lie".

I agree but he did not say that Mahathir's supporters won't lie when writing about the economy.

Mahathir supporters and the opposition are the ones who should be truthful on the true state of the economy instead of inciting fears based on false data or faulty interpretation.

Najib saved us from the Great Recession following the US Sub-prime crash in the 2007-2008. By all accounts and data (instead of air liur), the economy has been well managed despite a big slump in oil revenues amidst the commodities crash in second half 2014 until now.

Let's have confidence that Najib's government will continue to steer us well. He has not failed like Mahathir had.

Throughout Mahathir's 22 years in charge, he led us through two very severe recessions in the mid 1980s and in 1998 and three major slowdowns - the last of which was just before he retired.

In the face of the current BREXIT and the China slowdown, which are global issues, it is better for people like Kadir and their gang to support and instill confidence in the economy rather than trying to intentionally or inadvertently harm the economy.

I wrote this yesterday but will repeat it again:

The opposition frequently spread false, misleading lies such as this to destroy confidence in what is known as a "self-fulfilling prophecy". Imagine if everyone believe what is in this message then no one will spend and if no one will spend then all the shops will close down, he factories will also close down and then the banks will close down and et cetera. Somewhere along the line, you and I and everyone else will also lose their jobs or business.

Therefore, spreading such lies is not helpful to Malaysia but you are harming Malaysia and ourselves.

These people don't care what happens to Malaysia as long as they get what they want. They think that if the economy is bad then it is easier for them to win power. These people are despicable.

Do not fall for their lies and spread such negative messages to incite hate, create fear which will eventually end up hurting ourselves.

Stop it, you fake hateful people with hidden agenda.

Trying to destroy your own country's economy and bringing harm to tens of millions just for your political agenda is not only treachery but brings to mind the following saying.

"Don't cut off your nose to spite your face."

My Reply to "Tun Daim", msg from a friend from the financial sector....

(Versi Melayu ada di bawah)


This is my reply to you (your message in italics and mine in bold):

Just Sharing a msg from a friend from the financial sector....
Malaysian Currency is expected to depreciate further to RM 4.50 by end of September as Ringgit is not used as currency's for trading in world stock exchange. Ringgit will stumbled as the govt further cut on export of crude oil due to over over supply.

Currency go up and down. Right now we are at USD1 to RM4.00 but we were at USD1 to RM4.47 at the beginning of the year. Our lives did not change much when our ringgit depreciated from RM3:20 to RM4.00 over the past few years. Neither did we suddenly become richer when our currency appreciated from RM3.73 to RM3 from 2008 to 2012. Similarly, the United Kingdom also did not go bust when the UK pounds depreciated from £1 to RM6.75 in Oct 2015 to RM5.20 just recently.

In fact, a weaker Ringgit allows us to compete stronger as was evidence by our continued improvement in foreign trade and our trade surplus where our manufactured and services industry benefited strongly despite the weakness in GLOBAL oil prices, which is beyond the control of Malaysia. This will help Malaysia further diversify our economy so we will be less dependent on commodity exports.

Everyone should take precaution as this is a economy disasters as a whole. Bank Negara held reserved is only RM101 billion at this moment. But Our debt has climbed to Rm 614,880,270 billion. Which means each tax paying citizen has a debt of Rm18,835. Current advice is Stop investing in any ventures , properties or car. Cash in hand is Disaster is on the way.
You have the amount of our BNM reserves correct but the currency is wrong. Our current BNM reserves is not RM101 billion but USD101 billion (or thereabouts as it fluctuates too), meaning RM400 billion. I am surprised that a "Tun Daim" would make such a silly mistake.

As for our govt debt, don't just look at the absolute amount but the debt to GDP ratio which means our debt compared to our yearly income. We are at about 54% right now. When Mahathir became PM in 1982, he ramped up this ratio from 40% to more than 100% within 5 years and we didn't go bankrupt then. Neither will we go bankrupt now at 54%.

In fact, according to the CIA's world factbook, Malaysia at 54% is at 71st place in the countries with the highest debt to GDP ratio - meaning 70 other countries have to go bankrupt first before reaching Malaysia's turn - and this includes countries such as Japan,, Singapore, UK, USA, Germany etc..

Penang has right now embarked on a Transport Masterplan project costing RM46 billion where the state govt said they will borrow to fund the project. Divided by 1.6 million people in Penang, this will mean RM28,750 per person And if you believe RM18,835 per person will make Malaysia bankrupt then RM28,750 per person would mean Penang will go bankrupt faster than the rest of the country.

World Economic Analyst predict within the next 3 months, Malaysia economy . will collapse. Stock market & currency value will take a nose dive in a drastic manner.
This is due to world negative economic outlook for the year 2017

I think we have heard this many times. Which "World Economic Analyst" are you talking about? Malaysia is still enjoying robust 4.1% GDP growth over the past 6 months, our stock market is still double of what it was in 2009 and our trade surplus and reserves are strong. So, how are we going to collapse?

Crude oil will crash due to oversupply. As Americans are pumping more crude oil. The reasons: i) to hurt Russian's economy and her currency as Russian is world's no1.ii) ISIS in order to finance their survival is also selling cheap smuggled crude oil from Syria & Iraq thus flooding the oil market..
Malaysia's oil production will be hit due to this...apart from the current political uncertainty and corruption which discourages foreign investments...

Our oil production and exports were already hurt - in 2009, oil represented 44% of our govt revenues and it is only 17% last year and 11% this year. And we still did not collapse. Even if it drops another 11% and it goes to zero oil revenues, we won't collapse as our other industries such as manufacturing and services and our domestic economy will continue to drive our growth.

The world has perceived Malaysia as ranking no.1 for : i) Corruption & Scandals and financial forgery in money laundering. .

Actually, Malaysia is ranked at 54th least corrupt out of 179 countries in the latest Transparency International Corruption Perception Index - certainly not number one. I am not sure who ranked us number one but it is certainly not any recognized bodies.

So my dear friends,please spend your money wisely. Keep your Money for rainy days. As we are heading towards difficult and bumpy days . The journey will be tough & unpredictable. This will hit hard on all of us, regardless whether you are rich or poor. All the best to All ..............Tun Daim
It is always good to spend where it is necessary but such fake whatsapp messages such as yours are frequently spread by sneaky opposition parties to destroy confidence in the Malaysian economy.

Therefore, the opposition frequently spread false, misleading lies such as this to destroy confidence in what is known as a "self-fulfilling prophecy". Imagine if everyone believe what is in this message then no one will spend and if no one will spend then all the shops will close down, he factories will also close down and then the banks will close down and et cetera. Somewhere along the line, you and I and everyone else will also lose their jobs or business.

Therefore, spreading such lies is not helpful to Malaysia but you are harming Malaysia and ourselves.

These people don't care what happens to Malaysia as long as they get what they want. They think that if the economy is bad then it is easier for them to win power. These people are despicable. Do not fall for their lies and spread such negative messages to incite hate, create fear which will eventually end up hurting ourselves.

Stop it, "Tun Daim" and the rest of you fake hateful people.

Malay version follows:

Kerapkali berlegar di kalangan pengguna aplikasi telefon pintar, mesej menggunakan nama ‘Tun Daim’ kononnya menceritakan mengenai ekonomi namun ditulis secara terpesong. Ia akan dikongsikan pelbagai pihak tanpa memeriksa kesahihannya. Terkini, mesej menggunakan nama 'Tun Daim itu mendakwa kononnya ekonomi Malaysia akan runtuh. Berikut dipaparkan jawapan kepada ‘Tun Daim’ mengenai ekonomi negara: DUHAI "TUN DAIM", Ini adalah jawapan saya kepada anda. ‘Tun Daim’ mendakwa: Hanya berkongsi satu mesej daripada seorang rakan daripada sektor kewangan.. Nilai matawang Ringgit dijangka akan menyusut kepada RM4.50 menjelang hujung September ini kerana Ringgit tidak digunakan sebagai matawang dagangan saham dunia. Ringgit akan runtuh kerana kerajaan menyekat eksport minyak mentah ekoran lebihan bekalan. JAWAPAN SAYA: Nilai matawang akan turun dan naik. Ketika ini, Ringgit adalah USD1 kepada RM4.00 dan kita pernah berada pada USD1 kepada RM4.47 awal tahun ini. Kehidupan kita tidak terjejas ketika ringgit menyusut daripada RM3.20 kepada RM4.00 pada beberapa tahun ini. Kita juga tidak tiba-tiba menjadi kaya apabila nilai matawang kita meningkat daripada RM3.73 pada 2008 kepada RM3 pada 2012. Begitu juga dengan United Kingdom yang tidak runtuh apabila Pound UK menyusut daripada £1 bersamaan RM6.75 Oktober lalu dan kepada RM5.20 just baru-baru ini. Malah, Ringgit yang lemah membolehkan kita bersaing lebih kukuh dan ini dibuktikan dengan peningkatan berterusan dalam dagangan asing dan lebihan dagangan di mana industri perkhidmatan dan pengeluaran menerima manfaat lebih baik disebalik kelemahan harga minyak dunia, yang di luar kawalan Malaysia. Ini akan membantu Malaysia untuk mempelbagaikan ekonomi negara agar kurang bergantung kepada eksport komoditi. ‘Tun Daim’ mendakwa: Semua perlu mengambil langkah berjaga-jaga kerana ia adalah keruntuhan ekonomi secara keseluruhan. Rizab Bank Negara pada ketika ini adalah RM101 bilion. Tetapi hutang kita telah melonjak kepada RM614,880,270 bilion. Ini bermakna setiap cukai dibayar rakyat menanggung hutang RM18.835. Nasihat pada ketika ini ialah berhenti melabur dalam apa juga pelaburan, hartanah dan kereta. Tunai dalam tangan adalah selamat kerana malapetaka bakal menimpa. JAWAPAN SAYA: Anda menulis jumlah rizab BNM dengan tepat sekali namun dalam matawang yang salah. RIzab BNM ketika ini bukanlah RM101 bilion tetapi USD101 bilion, bermakna berjumlah RM400 bilion. Saya terkejut kerana seorang bernama ‘Tun Daim’ boleh melakukan kesilapan yang mengarut seperti itu. Dan bagi hutang kerajaan pula, jangan melihat kepada jumlah semata-mata tetapi antara nisbah hutang berbanding Keluaran Dalam Negara Kasar (KDNK) di mana ia bermakna hutang berbanding perolehan tahunan negara. Kita adalah pada paras 54 peratus ketika ini. Ketika zaman Tun Dr Mahathir pada 1982, beliau telah meningkatkan nisbah hutang daripada 40 peratus kepada 100 peratus dalam tempoh 5 tahun namun kita tetap tidak bankrap. Kita juga tidak akan bankrap pada 54 peratus. Malah, berdasarkan kepada laporan fakta Agensi Perisikan Pusat (CIA) Amerika Syarikat, Malaysia dengan hutang 54 peratus berada di kedudukan 71 bagi negara mempunyai nisbah hutang tinggi berbanding KDNK, bermakna ia memerlukan 70 negara lain untuk bankrap terlebih dahulu sebelum tiba kepada giliran Malaysia, dan ini termasuk negara seperti Jepun, Singapura, UK, Amerika Syarikat, Jerman dan lain-lain. Pulau Pinang kini memulakan projek Pelan Pengangkutan melibatkan kos RM46 bilion di mana kerajaan negeri diterajui DAP itu mengesahkan akan membuat pinjaman bagi membiayai projek itu. Dibahagikan kepada 1.6 juta penduduk di Pulau Pinang, ia bermakna setiap rakyat Pulau Pinang menanggung RM28,750 setiap seorang. Jika anda percaya RM18,835 boleh membuatkan Malaysia bankrap, ia bermakna RM28,750 setiap seorang akan membuatkan Pulau Pinang bankrap lebih pantas daripada negara ini. ‘Tun Daim’ mendakwa: Penganlisa Ekonomi Global mengunjurkan bagi tempoh tiga bulan akan datang, ekonomi Malaysia akan runtuh. Pasaran saham dan nilai matawang akan menjunam dalam keadaan drastik. Ia lantaran unjuran ekonomi dunia yang negatif bagi tahun 2017. JAWAPAN SAYA: Saya rasa kita sudah mendengar dakwaan ini banyak kali. ‘Penganalisa Ekonomi Dunia’ manakah yang anda maksudkan? Malaysia masih lagi menikmati pertumbuhan menggalakkan sebanyak 4.1 peratus bagi tempoh 6 bulan ini, pasaran saham masih lagi berganda berbanding 2009 dan lebihan dagangan serta rizab masih lagi kukuh. Jadi, bagaimanakah agaknya kita akan ‘runtuh’? ‘Tun Daim’ mendakwa: Minyak mentah akan runtuh lantaran lebihan bekalan. Memandangkan Amerika Syarikat mengeluarkan lebih banyak minyak. Alasannya ialah: i) bagi menjejaskan ekonomi Russia dan matawangnya kerana Russia berada di kedudukan pertama dunia. Ii} ISIS dalam membiayai penjajahan mereka turut menjual minyak mentah seludup daripada Syria dan Iraq turut menjualnya pada harga murah hingga membanjiri pasaran minyak mentah. Pengeluaran minyak Malaysia akan terjejas berikutan keadaan ini, selain ketidaktentuan politik Malaysia dan rasuah yang mengekang pelaburan asing. JAWAPAN SAYA: Pengeluaran minyak dan eksport kita sudahpun terjejas, pada 2009, minyak mewakili 49 peratus daripada pendapatan kerajaan dan hanya 17 peratus pada tahun lalu manakala 11 peratus sahaja tahun ini. Namun kita masih tidak lagi runtuh. Jika ia jatuh kepada 11 peratus lagi sekalipun dan tiada pendapatan daripada minyak sekalipun, kita tidak akan runtuh kerana industry lain seperti pengeluaran dan perkhidmatan serta ekonomi domestik kita masih terus mengukuhkan pertumbuhan ekonomi negara. ‘Tun Daim’ mendakwa: Dunia telah menganggap Malaysia berada di kedudukan nombor 1 bagi i) Rasuah dan skandal serta penipuan kewangan dalam pengubahan wang. JAWAPAN SAYA: Sebenarnya, Malaysia berada di tempat 54 bagi negara yang paling kurang rasuah daripada jumlah 179 negara paling rasuah melalui Indeks Persepsi Transparency International, dan bukannya nombor satu. Saya tidak tahu siapa yang meletakkan kita di nombor satu, tetapi tentunya bukan sebuah badan yang dikenali. ‘Tun Daim’ mendakwa: Maka, sahabat sekalian, belanjalah wang dengan cermat. Simpan wang anda untuk waktu terdesak. Kerana kita menuju kea rah kesulitan dan kesusahan. Perjalanan ini akan lebih sukar dan tidak dapat dijangka. Ia akan menjejaskan kita semua, tak kira anda kaya atau miskin. Ucap selamat kepada anda semua.. Tun Daim. JAWAPAN SAYA: Adalah baik untuk berbelanja kepada keperluan tetapi mesej whatsapp palsu seperti daripada anda ini semakin kerap disebarkan oleh pihak pembangkang bagi memusnahkan keyakinan pada ekonomi Malaysia. Pembangkang kerap menyebarkan penipuan, cerita palsu bagi meruntuhkan keyakinan bagi memuaskan nafsu politik mereka. Bayangkan jika semua orang percaya penipuan dalam mesej ini dan tiada siapa pun akan berbelanja dan apabila tiada sesiapa berbelanja, maka tutuplah kesemua kedai, kilang juga akan tutup dan bank juga akan tutup. Pada masa yang sama, anda atau saya akan kehilangan pekerjaan atau perniagaan. Untuk itu, menyebarkan tipu daya seperti ini tidak akan membantu Malaysia tetapi anda sendiri akan merosakkan Malaysia dan diri kita. Manusia seperti itu tidak peduli apa akan jadi kepada Malaysia asalkan mereka mendapat apa yang mereka mahukan iaitu melihat Malaysia menjadi rosak. Mereka fikir, jika mereka dapat merosakkan ekonomi negara, ia akan lebih mudah untuk mereka merampas kuasa. Manusia seperti ini adalah manusia jijik. Jangan terperdaya kepada penipuan mereka dan menyebarkan mesej sarat dengan penipuan mereka bagi mencetuskan rasa benci, ketakutan yang akhirnya akan merosakkan kita semua. Hentikanlah duhai ‘Tun Daim’ serta anda semua yang palsu dan penuh kebencian.