Dr Mahathir Mohamad denies the state of the Malaysian economy today is due to the lack of economic reforms when he was in power, iMoney reported.
He was responding to an opinion piece written by the University of Chicago’s Dan Slater, who had said that the road toward Malaysia’s economic ruin started when he was prime minister and not with current Prime Minister Najib Razak.
Slater had also accused Mahathir of not making the adjustments needed to pull the country out of its crisis, but instead burdening the state with more borrowing and spending.
“That is not true. If the crisis was caused by me, I would have, during my 22 years, faced the problem of debt payments, recession and all that.
No recession problem? Hello, there were multiple recessions and slow-downs during your 22 years - the 1985 recession, the 1998 recession, the 2001 slowdown all happened.
How is it even possible for Mahathir to deny this and say that with a straight face?
If he is still forgetful, all he needs to do to is to go visit Plaza Rakyat, Lembah Beringin, Duta Grand Hyatt and Bandar Wawasan (Vision City), which were among dozens of developments abandoned due to the 1998 crisis.
The still abandoned Plaza Rakyat - otherwise known as Kuala Lumpur's largest inner-city fish-pond -cum-Aedes mosquito breeding project
Mahathir continues defending himself and said this:
On the issue of borrowing, Mahathir denied having made extensive borrowings during his 22 years as prime minister.
Mahathir admitted he had even tried to borrow when the country faced the currency crisis in the late 1990s but failed to get the funds needed.
“Otherwise, everyone can see my record of borrowing. Very little. Even during the currency crisis, we did try to borrow but failed
Did not borrow much?
How about a 235% jump of our debt-to-GDP ratio within the first 5 years of taking over?
Yup.. In 1985, thanks to Mahathir our Debt-to-GDP ratio more than doubled to 103.4% from just 44%. Worse was that, unlike today, much of those borrowings were in foreign currency.
That year, if our country's income was RM100, we owed RM103.40 - the so-called technically bankrupt then.
How did Mahathir forget this?
Compare this with our Debt-to-GDP ratio today of 53.6% - meaning if our income is RM100, we comfortably owe RM53.60.
Also, remember earlier when Mahathir said "no recession"?
Well, if no recession then why did you have to go beg Singapore, Japan and others to borrow?
And of course Singapore rejected your request since for decades you had been whacking them.
Mahathir then goes on to say this:
On the issue of borrowing, Mahathir denied having made extensive borrowings during his 22 years as prime minister.
“Please show when did I borrow money. I only borrowed money from the Japanese because their offer was at the low interest rate of 0.7%, and it was repayable over 40 years.
“It’s almost like free money. If you didn’t borrow, then you are stupid. So, I borrowed,” he told iMoney.
Since ALL of the borrowings that Mahathir borrowed on behalf of Malaysia from the Japanese (and he borrowed a lot) were all denominated in Japanese Yen, the 3 1/2 fold appreciation of the Yen during his time made the borrowings super expensive since Mahathir neglected to hedge or manage this currency rate.
For example, a RM50 billion borrowings in yen would end up costing RM150 billion.
Rahman claimed that Mahathir had borrowed substantially from Japan, with loans denominated in yen. However, the subsequent appreciation of the yen’s value had caused significant losses to the country.
“The current government is determined not to repeat this mistake. That is why the government’s debt is denominated in ringgit and is only marginally affected by foreign currency exchange movements.”
Yes. We learned - thanks to Mahathir. Malaysia now have very small amounts of foreign-currency denominated loans.
The yen's ascent to record levels is straining the finances of East Asian governments that have borrowed heavily from Japan and now must pay Tokyo back in a now more expensive currency.
"We tried to renegotiate the loan in order to reduce slightly our debt burden to Japan," Prime Minister Mahathir bin Mohammad of Malaysia said in a recent speech in Japan. But, he added, "We were not given even one yen reduction."
“It’s almost like free money. If you didn’t borrow, then you are stupid. So, I borrowed,” said Mahathir. And Mahathir said the above only yesterday - not many many years ago.
Now that history has shown otherwise, who the stupid now?
The only stupid ones are those who still believe in your never-ending lies and denials.
Umno resorting to racial games is a sign of desperation, says DAP Secretary-General Lim Guan Eng.
He said unlike Umno’s current president Najib Razak, Dr Mahathir Mohamad had never resorted to such a “dirty tactic” in all his 22 years leading the party.
“Mahathir, at the Umno general assemblies in his time, never painted DAP as his number one enemy.
“He didn’t have to do this as he was able to manage the country and its economy well.
Oh wow!
It is as if we were all in coma for 22 years or we all completely forgot what DAP had been saying about Malaysia - the time-bombs, the failed states, the mega-scandals, the economic crisis of 1985 and 1998. No RM30b Forex scandal, no crony IPP, no Bumi policy "stunting" our economy, no PKFZ mega scandal approved by Mahathir. Nothing.
And also Mahathir never called Lim Kit Siang or DAP as racist. Never before.
Suddenly, just because Mahathir is now on their side, Lim Guan Eng now says Mahathir was never racist and had managed the country and economy well for 22 years.
How much more unprincipled can you be?
I pity those DAP supporters forced to listen to his blatant lying.
LGE and DAP are devoid of principles.
That means whatever you all have been saying for 22 years in the TENS OF THOUSANDS of ceramahs, statements, interviews were total lies, right?
Malaysia was one of the only countries to impose capital controls during the 1997-98 Asian financial crisis by fixing the exchange rate and requiring the currency be held at least a year after the sale of Malaysian securities or assets in the country. It was widely viewed as a major contributing factor to its subsequent economic recovery.
So, what Malaysia did was to impose capital controls - meaning controlling the inflows and outflows of Ringgit and making it internationally non-tradeable. This essentially means it is easy for foreigners to bring money into Malaysia but once the money is in, it is very hard to bring back out.
However, although it had helped stablize our economy for the short-term then, the long-term damage of capital controls was immense and long-lasting - after all, who would want to invest in your country but once the money is in, I can'; bring it back out?
Adnan assures that Malaysia remains an open economy and conditions do not warrant measures as drastic as capital controls, dismissing its one week old action against NDF trades, as merely tighter enforcement of existing rules.
"The situation and conditions are vastly different [from 1998 Asian financial crisis]. Now we have a very open economy. Investors come and go in our market... Even if we contemplate [capital controls], it is far too damaging and too risky for the economy... I just can't see that. So definitely no capital controls. There is no discussion of moving in that direction, but what we're trying to do is have a targeted measure to try and contain the offshore NDF market," he said.
"The ringgit being non-internationalised is one protection that we have and that would already prevent the kind of destabilising forex market that we had in 1998," he added, assuring there remains ample liquidity in the onshore market.
In fact, one of the reasons why the Ringgit spiked so much and so steeply after it passed RM3.80 was because foreign investors are afraid that we will take the easy way out and re-impose capital controls again.
Many investors would be suspicious of us since we had a track-record of doing this - hence they would rather sell their investments in Malaysia first and then bring it back out - which weakens the Ringgit - just in case we impose capital controls again and their money is stuck.
Local investors and wealthy individuals will also do the same and will quickly transfer their money overseas too. Who wants their money to be stuck?
That is why you see our country's leaders and BNM keep on making numerous repeated denials ever so often to deny we would implement capital controls.
This suspicion by investors that we will implement capital controls again is one of the long-term effect of what Mahathir did and it is still hurting us today.
If you look at the foreign investment inflows into Malaysia chart, you will see that foreign inflows suddenly spiked after 2005. Why is that?
And because investments were weak - especially portfolio investments, Mahathir had to run high budget deficit rates to pump-prime the economy using government money to replace private and foreidn investments to keep Malaysia growing.
You can see that the budget deficit was above 5% of GDP, which is considered high for a sustained period of time until Mahathir retired in 2003.
Despite this, the economy also went into a serious slow-down in 2001 and was lack-luster for much of this period.
Malaysia would not have been able to survive if we continue to run high budget deficits of above 5% for a sustained period of time - as it would mean our govt debt spiking.
As a comparison, here is the budget deficit since 2008 after Najib took over.
As you can see, other than having a big deficit in 2009 and 2010 to save us from the Great Global Recession, Najib has been able to maintain decent GDP growth since then while still reducing the budget deficit. In 2016, the budget deficit would be 3.1% and for 2017, it is budgeted for a deficit of 3%.
It is clear from the graph above that such sustained big increases of government debt during the Mahathir last 7 years after he pegged the currency and imposed capital controls is a certain path to disaster.
Given the large deficits, poor growth and sustained high percentage growth in government debt during that period, we can easily say that those 7 years were "lost years" for Malaysia. Mahathir at that time probably did not understand or didn't care for the long-term damage at that time as he would be retiring anyway.
It must be noted that countries such as Korea, Thailand and Indonesia were affected worse than Malaysia but did not impose capital controls or pegged their currencies then. Only Malaysia did it.
These countries also subsequently recovered at the same time as Malaysia. And because confidence is intact, investment flows to those countries accelerated leaving Malaysia behind.
This is why Najib continues to resist pegging the currency by imposing capital controls and why BNM said the previous capital controls were "far too damaging" and risky to our economy.
After all, our govt knows that it is the USD that is at a 14 year strongest against most currencies and that our largest trading partner's currency, China, is at an 8 year low too.
Thus, pegging our currency at a strong position while our largest customers currencies and competing economies are weak is a certain recipe for disaster for Malaysia. And of course there is the long-term damage
The opposition leaders led by Mahathir keep attacking Najib's government using the Ringgit weakness as "proof" that Malaysia is going bankrupt.
But the easiest thing for Najib to do is to follow exactly what Mahathir did and re-impose capital controls and peg the ringgit. Problem solved.
Cannot be that Mahathir can do it but Najib cannot, right?
However, Najib and the current government knows how damaging for our long-term and he does not choose the easy cowardly way out - like what Mahathir did.
Sedap mulut para pemimpin pembangkang seperti Dr Mahathir, Muhyiddin, Kit Siang dan sebagainya sering menuduh Malaysia sekarang dalam krisis dan oleh itu, perlu "diselamatkan".
Setiap pemimpin pembangkang dan blogger2 yang sewaktu dengan mereka sering keluarkan kenyataan-kenyataan begini. Malaysia dalam krisis ekonomi, bankrap, pengemis di negara sendiri, negara gagal dan sebagainya.
Propaganda-propaganda media sosial yang sama berbunyi dari entah siapa juga melambak dan viral.
Mahathir mudah lupa, Muhyiddin lupa mudah, Melayu mudah lupa dan rakyat Malaysia mudah lupa.
Mari kita menyelidik sepuluh petunjuk samada Malaysia dalam krisis atau tidak.
1. Indeks saham Bursa Malaysia.
Indeks saham ialah petunjuk yang baik bahawa Malaysia bukan dalam krisis. Kalau benar-benar krisis, indeks saham akan menjunam seperti di tahun 1998 zaman Mahathir dan Anwar bila indeks saham menjunam lebih dari 80% dalam masa yang singkat.
Kalau Malaysia dalam krisis, siapa lagi akan melabur dan membeli saham? Tentu kalau krisis, semua akan jual saham-saham yang dipegang dan belah.
Sebaliknya, indeks saham hari ini masih lebih dua kali ganda dari indeks tahun 2009 bila Najib Razak mula mentadbir.
2. Pendaftaran Kenderaan Baru.
Kalau Malaysia dalam krisis, maksudnya jualan dan pendaftaran kereta baru akan menjunam - seperti pada tahun 1998 yang jatuh lebih dari 59% dalam jangka masa satu tahun.
Sebaliknya, penjualaan kereta di Malaysia masih kukuh di paras yang tinggi berbanding tahun sebelumnya - walaupun mengalami kejatuhan 13% kerana perintah Bank Negara untuk mengurangkan pinjaman bank untuk pembeli kenderaan dan rumah.
3. Matawang Ringgit ke USD
Sebenarnya, Ringgit hanya jatuh 16% berbanding dengan kadar pada tahun 2009. Kadar FOREX sememangnya ada naik dan turun. Kenaikkan Ringgit tahun 2009 to 2013 kepada tahap setinggi USD1 = RM 2.93 ialah kerana faktor harga minyak dunia yang tinggi dan aliran wang asing masuk ke Malaysia kerana kemelut ekonomi Amerika Syarikat.
Pada tahun 2014 pula, harga minyak dunia mula turun dan aliran wang asing sudah mula mengalir balik kepada Amerika Syarikat kerana ekonomi mereka pulih.
Tetapi dalam tahun 1998, kejatuhan Ringgit sebanyak 45% berlaku pada masa yang sangat singkat - tanpa pengaruh faktor-faktor lain seperti harga komoditi dunia ataupun kemelut di ekonomi Amerika. Ini benar-benar krisis dan tidak sama dengan keadaan sekarang.
Ini ialah sebab Ringgit terpaksa ditambat ke paras USD1=RM3.80 pada masa itu.
Situasi sekarang tahun 2016 tidak memerlukan kerajaan tambat matawang kerana kestabilan matawang masih terkawal. Lebih-lebih lagi, matawang-matawang negara pelanggan dan yang besaing dengan Malaysia juga turun berbanding dengan USD.
Tentu boleh jika sangat diperlukan tetapi Najib tidak akan gunakan jalan mudah dan penakut macam Mahathir.
4. Kadar Faedah Pinjaman Bank
Pada tahun 1998, kadar faedah pinjaman bank naik setinggi 13.5% kerana bank-bank Malaysia kekurangan wang dan keperluan Bank Negara pada masa itu untuk mempertahankan nilai Ringgit. Bila kadar pinjaman naik, pelabur asing akan tertarik untuk melabur di Malaysia untuk menikmati pulangan yang simpanan bank yang tinggi.
Kadar pinjaman yang tinggi pada masa itu menyeksa banyak peminjam individu mahupun korporat - mengakibatkan banyak yang muflis dan mengakibatkan ratusan projek-projek yang gagal.
Tahun 2016 pula, kadar pinjaman bank rendah pada tahap 4.5% - malah, sudah dua kali diturunkan tahun ini.
5. Projek-projek terbengkalai
Tahun 1998, banyak syarikat - besar mahupun kecil - yang gagal kerana terdesak kadar faedah pinjaman naik mendadak. Akibatnya, banyak projek-projek pembangunan sudah terbengkalai.
Ada yang masih dalam keadaan ini sampai hari ini - termasuk taman perumahan di Lembah Beringin, Selangor, projek Plaza Rakyat yang terkenal sebagai "kolam ikan dan jejentik" terbesar di Kuala Lumpur dan hotel 5 bintang Duta Grand Hyatt di persimpangan Jalan Ampang dan Jalan Sultan Ismail.
Zaman Najib tahun 2015-2016, tiada sebarang projek-projek yang terbengkalai.
Kadar faedah pinjaman bank tahun 1998 telah menyebabkan banyak syarikat dan individu untuk tidak lagi mampu membayar pinjaman-pinjaman bank. Ini telah menyebabkan banyak pinjaman bank yang bermasalah dan menimbulkan kerugian kepada bank-bank di Malaysia.
Nisbah hutang yang tak dibayar (Non-performing loan ataupun NPL industri bank pada tahun 1998 naik sehingga 14.9%. Ini bermaksud, setiap RM100 yang dipinjam keluar oleh bank ada RM14.90 tidak dapat dibayar balik.
Tahun 2016 amat berbeza. Nisbah ini hanya tahap 1.6% - suatu kadar yang sangat selamat.
7. Prestasi bank-bank di Malaysia
Tahun 1998, banyak bank-bank yang terancam akibat hutang-hutang yang tidak dapat dikutip semula. Keadaan ini sudah tahap kritikal sehingga perlunya karajaan untuk menubuhkan DanaHarta dan DanaModal untuk menyelamatkan bank-bank dan syarikat-syarikat yang bankrap.
Tahun 2016 sangat berbeza. Nisbah hutang tak berbayar rendah dan keuntungan bank-bank Malaysia adalah baik dan meningkat. Tiada sebarang keperluan untuk dana-dana penyelamat seperti DanaHarta dan DanaModal.
8. Menarik pelaburan projek berbanding meminta pertolongan pinjaman cemas
Menarik pelaburan dan pinjaman dari Negara Cina untuk projek pembangunan bermanfaat di Malaysia berbandingkan permintaan secara terbuka untuk meminjam wang secara segera dari Singapura dan Jepun untuk mengatasi krisis ekonomi. Amat nyata perbezaannya.
Tak percaya Mahathir pernah menjatuhkan air muka beliau dan negara untuk meminta Singapura dan Jepun untuk bantuan kewangan cemas untuk menyelamatkan negara?
Inilah maksud negara dalam krisis. Bukan sekarang. Mahathir mudah lupa.
9. Pertumbuhan KDNK (GDP)
Takkan negatif dan positif tidak dapat dibezakan? Pertumbuhan ekonomi tahun 2015 dan 2016 masih kukuh - terutama kalau dibandingkan dengan negara-negara jiran kita.
Berbanding negara-negara dunia termasuk negara jiran kita, ekonomi Malaysia masih baik lagi.
Walaupun ada kelembapan akibat keadaan ekonomi dunia yang tidak stabil, namun pertumbuhan ekonomi Malaysia antara 20 yang terbaik di dunia. Malah pada suku ketiga 2016, pertumbuhan KDNK sudah mula meningkat semula.
Pertumbuhan GDP Malaysia 2017 juga dijangka lebih baik berbanding 2016.
10. Nisbah hutang negara kepada Keluaran Dalam Negara Kasar (KDNK) ataupun Debt-to-GDP ratio
Pada lima tahun pertama Mahathir memerintah, dia telah menaikkan nisbah ini dari 44% tahun 1981 sehingga 103.4% tahun 1986.
Jika kita tidak muflis ketika kadar 103.4% pada tahun 1985, bagaimana mungkin kita boleh menjadi bankrap pada kadar 53.4% sekarang?
Kalau Malaysia dianggap sudah bankrap pada nisbah 53.4%, maka 70 lagi negara lain yang juga sudah bankrap termasuk kebanyakkan negara-negara yang maju.
Hutang negara, walaupun nilai (bukan nisbah) meningkat, tidak sepatutnya dilihat secara mutlak - tetapi dibanding dengan kemampuan untuk membayar balik.
Takkan dikatakan kerani yang ada hutang RM10,000 kad kredit dikatakan 5 ganda lebih selamat dari seorang pengurus besar syarikat bersenarai yang ada hutang kad kredit sebanyak RM50,000?
KESIMPULAN
Jelas dari perbandingan diatas bahawa Dr. Mahathir, Kit Siang, Muhyiddin dan para pemimpin pembangkang amat mudah lupa. Senang-senang melaungkan "Krisis" walaupun jelas bukan krisis.
Ini semata-mata permainan politik mereka sahaja.
"The Malaysian economy continues to perform well, despite significant headwinds.
Malaysia’s diversified economy, along with exchange rate flexibility, has buffered the real economy from the commodity price shock, while deep financial markets have helped absorb global financial market volatility. Inflation has been subdued and the current account remains in surplus.
“Malaysia has made significant progress toward achieving high-income status. A range of structural reforms has been undertaken to boost longer-term economic growth. "
Maksudnya, kerajaan sudah mengendali ekonomi dengan baik walaupun harga komoditi lemah. IMF juga puji kerajaan Malaysia membuat transformasi negara untuk kukuhkan lagi pertumbuhan ekonomi jangkamasa panjang. IMF berpendapat bahawa prestasi kerajaan baik dan semakin maju untuk mencapai matlamat negara berpendapatan tinggi.
Tetapi, iya. mengikut pembangkang, Malaysia perlu "diselamatkan". Dan siapa yang akan selamatkan Malaysia?
Tidak lain dan tidak bukan, mereka yang akan "menyelamatkan Malaysia".
Matlamat mereka hanya satu sahaja. Menakutkan orang ramai dan merendahkan pencapaian ekonomi negara demi hasrat mereka untuk merebut kuasa kerajaan.
Itu sahaja.
Tetapi, permainan politik macam ini sangat berbahaya kerana akan menakutkan dan menurunkan keyakinan pengguna dan pelabur untuk terus memajukan negara. Kalau pengguna sering ditakutkan dengan propaganda tipu, mereka akan henti ataupun mengurangkan perbelanjaan. Bila perbelajaan turun, maka jualan kedai2 pun turun. Jualan kedai2 turun maksudnya mereka tidak akan melabur untuk membuka kedai yang baru ataupun akan mengurangkan pekerja dan menghapuskan peluang pekerjaan.
Jangan tertipu dengan para penjahat-penjahat yang busuk hati ini.
EDIT: Someone did a video summary of the above 10 points.
Tun Dr M's statement in italics and my replies in blue: 1. The MCA President has expressed his disgust at what he calls the lack of principle on the part of DAP. 2. He seems to think that DAP’s working together with me is all wrong. LSS: Mahathir seems to have completely misunderstood the "disgust" from MCA. It was not aimed at Mahathir but rather at DAP.
This disgust is at the unbelievable flip-flop of DAP which means that DAP had been lying to Malaysians for 22 years if those allegations against Tun M is no longer true.
THIS IS LIE NUMBER 1. 3. But MCA’s working together with a known kleptocrat who has stolen billions of Ringgit is the worst example of a lack of principle. Or is the MCA unaware of what Najib has done to UMNO, BN and the nation. If he is not, I would like to tell him that under Najib Malaysia has been classified as one of the ten most corrupt country in the world.
LSS: This is a lie. Where was it that said Malaysia is one of the ten most corrupt country in the world? Malaysia is listed in the top 3rd (54th out of 167 countries) in terms of least corrupt in Transparency International's Corruption Perception Index. THIS IS LIE NUMBER 2. 4. The American Dept. of Justice has reported that Najib, who is Malaysian Official 1 (as confirmed by Cabinet Minister Abdul Rahman Dahlan), has stolen billions of Ringgit of the Malaysian people’s money, and 2.6 billion Ringgit of this is in Najib’s personal bank account. Of course the MCA thinks this is okay. That is the MCA’s principle which it must cling to. It must be proud that it is supporting Najib who is involved in the world’s biggest fund case as alleged by the Department of Justice.
LSS: Again Tun Mahathir is lying. the American Dept of Justice did not report that Najib stole money. In fact, like the dozens of unnamed individuals in the suit, MO1 is not a party of the civil suit of the USA's DOJ kleptoracy - that is exactly why it was MO1 listed and not Najib Razak.
The reason why MALAYSIAN OFFICIAL 1 is not named is the same as why those other people are not named.
Because they are not the subjects of the suit.
Is that so hard to understand?
THIS IS LIE NUMBER 3. 5. Now Najib considers the contest is between UMNO and DAP. This means Najib believes in racism because to him Malaysian politics is about Malays versus Chinese. Towards that end he has redrawn constitutional boundaries to separate Malays from Chinese. LSS: What does Tun Mahathir mean when he says this contest is between UMNO and DAP is equal to racism? Is Tun Mahathir now saying that DAP is a Chinese-only party?
And just because BN, the party with the most number of seats, is saying that the battle is now agaisnt DAP, the party with the second most number of seats, does this mean that Najib said the battle is now Malays versus Chinese? Najib never said that.
What is wrong with the party with the most number of seats declaring that the party with the second most number of seats is their main rival? Isn't that logical and expected?
THIS IS LIE NUMBER 4. 6. Perhaps this accords with MCA as an ethnic Chinese Party. DAP is a multi-racial party which supports all the provisions of the Malaysian Constitution.
LSS: But in just the point above, Tun M claimed that DAP is a Chinese-only party and now he says DAP is multi-racial?
Please be consistent lah. 7. Accordingly the DAP celebration of its 50th anniversary was conducted completely in the national language. LSS: This is a lie. Lim Guan Eng himself broke into Mandarin in the middle of his pengullungan speech. The video of the speech proves this. Listen to 7 minutes 16 seconds of Guan Eng's speech.
Does this sound like our national language to you?
THIS IS LIE NUMBER 5. 8. The DAP Secretary General categorically stated in his speech that DAP had never asked to have a Chinese Prime Minister in answer to Najib’s claim that if the DAP wins the next election Kit Siang would be P.M. DAP’s choice is Anwar Ibrahim, a non-Chinese. LSS: Again, Tun Mahahir is lying. Najib had never said that if DAP wins, Kit Siang would be PM. When did Najib say this? It certainly was not said in the recent UMNO General Assembly. THIS IS LIE NUMBER 6. Muhyiddin had also confirmed that DAP has given their consent and agreement to him that a Malay will be PM if Pakatan wins.
9. MCA obviously supports Najib’s racist play by saying that if UMNO loses to DAP, there would be a Chinese as PM., or maybe MCA just wants to bodek Najib, principle be damned. LSS: MCA also never said this. Mahathir is lying again. Why would MCA even object to having a Chinese as PM? It defies logic! Please lah, Mahathir. THIS IS LIE NUMBER 7. 10. MCA should not talk about principle as it is just opportunistic. It is not the MCA of Tun Tan Cheng Lock. It is just an appendage of Najib’s racist UMNO now. LSS: Fuhh.. Najib's racist UMNO. Let's hear what Mahathir says about racism and extremists.
Or here:
And isn't DAP the party whose main ceramah expert told tens of thousands of voters to use a Malay to screw their own Malays and that this would be the most enjoyable show of a lifetime to watch?
11. I am with DAP and the other opposition parties because I don’t want to be associated with Najib and his kleptocratic government. Until he can prove beyond reasonable doubt he did not steal 1MDB money, I will still say he has stolen money from the people of Malaysia. LSS: When Tun M withdrew support for Najib in Aug 2014, it was never about 1MDB. In fact, the top reason Tun M listed down why he withdrew support was that Najib had abolished ISA which Tun M does not agree with. In fact, Tun M first attacked UMNO in October 2013 when his son lost in the party elections for vice-president.
Nevertheless, we congratulate Tun M's son for now being deputy president for his his new party where Tun M himself is the Chairman. So Mahathir lied again saying he withdrew support for Najib because of 1MDB.
THIS IS LIE NUMBER 8. 12. For MCA everything that Najib has done is okay. So stay with him. And that means MCA has no principle. DAP has upheld its principle to have clean election, to have democracy and to fight for a clean Government. MCA is as kleptocratic as Najib.
Upheld principle? As in point 2 above where 22 years of DAP's continued allegations against Tun Mahathir has now vanished because DAP now says Mahathir has managed the country and economy well for 22 years?
What about the principles where a civil servant who is formally charged with corruption should step down from public office until they are cleared by the courts?
But Guan Eng is still Chief Minister and refuses to resign. That is principle?
What about the party, when they were in alliance with PAS, went all over to convince the Chinese to accept Hudud but then later on attacked PAS for wanting to implement Hudud even though DAP had given a secret written agreement signed by the DAP Secretary General himself that PAS has the right to pursue an Islamic state govt?
That is also "principles"? No way. DAP has no principles as what Mahathir said.
THIS IS LIE NUMBER 9. 13. Shame on you MCA. LSS: Shame on you Mahathir, for repeatedly lying and twisting.
NINE CLEAR LIES in just one 13 point statement from Mahathir.
Please don't let your legacy be known as Tun Dr Fitnah.
The image of Mahathir in a BERSIH 5 shirt while doing a video advertistment to promote the event was a real eye-opener for many people - some people applauded him while many others were turned off.
We may never know if his presence was the reason why BERSIH 5 attendance was down by as much as 80% as estimated by BERSIH themselves or down 60% as estimated by MalaysiaKini but that is not the focus of today's article.
Much has been said about Mahathir's recent U-turns, many of which have puzzled friends and foes alike. He has made so many that we can only speculate what else more in future where he would make similar U-Turns in support of DAP's stand.
So, what had motivated the former Prime Minister to make such shocking U-turns which is so out-of-character based on his past track records that to many, it has made him look like the ultimate shamless hypocrite?
Unless Mahathir spills the beans himself, we can only speculate.
But it is easier to say what is not the reason than to say with certainty what is the real reason. Let's list them all down.
It is not because of 1MDB or RM2.6 billion or any alleged corruption.
This is way before there were any allegations on 1MDB or any hint of RM2.6 billion in PM's account.
In fact, the reasons given by Mahathir at that time were only these four:
1. Najib abolished ISA.
2. Najib was too friendly to Singapore.
3. Najib did not take care of the "kaum and parti" who had helped save the govt in GE13. (Mahathir had previously blamed Najib of being too nice to the Chinese in GE13).
4. Najib allows more imports at the expense of local products (a chief complaint of his Proton then).
There was nothing about 1MDB or SOSMA or RM2.6b or anything like that when Mahathir withdrew support.
It is not because Mahathir thinks that Najib is kejam or cruel or had implemented NSC or SOSMA
In fact, the first point that Mahathir had given to withdraw support is that Najib abolished ISA
Which is why many observers laughed and saw it farcical and hypocritical when Mahathir brought his wife to turn up at the "Free Maria Chin, abolish SOSMA" event.
SOSMA is way less lethal than ISA while Mahathir himself had imprisoned Maria Chin's late husband Yunus Ali under ISA during Ops Lalang.
So, Mahathir being there to free Maria and to abolish SOSMA was indeed funny - especially since Najib abolishing ISA was one of the main reason given by Mahathir when he stopped supporting Najib in Aug 2014.
It is not because Malaysia is going bankrupt or that the Ringgit has fallen
If it is about the Ringgit, Mahathir would know that all Najib needs to do is to peg it just like he had in 1998 and then, no more questions.
And it is not about Malaysia going bankrupt as our Debt-to-GDP at 53% right now is much lower than what Mahathir pushed it up to from 44% in 1981 to 103.4% in 1986.
Plus, Mahathir knows there is no immediate need for a Danamodal or Danaharta to be set-up right now to save the banks and our conglomerates like what he did in 1998.
In fact, all the banks are really strong right now. If the economy is no good or near collapse, the banks would be the first to get into trouble.
On the contrary, in the 3 months ending 30 Sep 2016, most of the banks have reported decent growth in profits:
RM1.86b = MBB
RM1.25b = PBB
RM1.05b = CIMB
RM0.54b = HLBB
RM0.51b = RHB
RM0.38b = AMMB
RM0.17b = AFG
RM0.14b = AFFIN
RM0.11b = BIMB
So the question about saving Malaysia is out.
So, what would be the chief motivation for Mahathir to suddenly become so desperate?
To me, I can clearly see two possible key motivation.
1. Self-preservation
The two most basic human instincts are Self-preservation and pro-creation.
At his age of 91 years old, pro-creation is certainly not his motivation. Especially since he has lots of children and grand-children already.
That leaves self-preservation - more specifically, the preservation of his bloodlines and his legacy.
For 17 out of 22 years when Mahathir was Prime Minister, Suharto was his Indonesia counterpart. Both are reported to be very close friends.
After being forced to resign in 1998, Suharto and his family spent much of their time fending-off corruption investigations. However, Suharto himself was protected from serious prosecution by politicians and people in the government who owed their positions to the former president, as indicated in the leaked telephone conversation between President Habibie and attorney-general Andi Muhammad Ghalib in Feb 1999.
In May 1999, Time Asia estimated Suharto's family fortune at US$15 billion in cash, shares, corporate assets, real estate, jewelry and fine art.
On 29 May 2000, Suharto was placed under house arrest when Indonesian authorities began to investigate the corruption during his presidency. In July 2000, it was announced that he was being investigated for embezzling US$571 million of government donations to one of a number of foundations under his control and then using the money to finance family investments.
In 2002, Suharto's son Tommy, was sentenced to 15 years' jail. He had been convicted of ordering the killing of a judge who had sentenced him to 18 months jail for corruption and illegal weapons possession.
In 2003, Suharto's half-brother Probosutedjo was sentenced to four years in jail for corruption and the loss of US$10 million from the state.
On 9 July 2007, Indonesian prosecutors filed a civil lawsuit against former President Suharto, to recover USD$440 in state funds and a further $1.1 billion in damages.
Suharto's legacy was destroyed. He and his family members got into lots of trouble and some were jailed.
During the final hours of Suharto's life in 2008, Mahathir flew to be at his bedside.
According to Suharto's daughter, Mahathir and Suharto, during the rare period when the former Indonesian president was conscious on his deathbed, shed tears together.
Many Indonesians respected Suharto for economically developing the country, while others who suffered under his strong-armed rule and accused him of plunder and rights abuses were disappointed he was never brought to trial.
It should as such come as no surprise that Mahathir had developed a certain bond with Suharto. The manner in which Suharto was criticized by many Indonesians must have saddened, if not frightened Mahathir.
Since all of Mahathir's sons are very rich. Here is an example.
Mahathir is a big critic of BR1M whom he calls dedak.
However, BR1M is a policy that is also practiced in many countries to distribute income from the richer Malaysians to the below 40% (B40) income groups.
Here is an illustration which will give you an idea of the scale of inequality.
Mahathir had fought for bangsa dan agama for 22 years and finally, 3 Malay-Muslims entered the top ten richest Malaysians list in early 2014.
This means that Mokhzani could have paid fully for the BR1M payments for that year to all 4.3 million households and 2.7 million single unmarried individuals and still have RM1.22 billion remaining to spend on his fancy cars.
Seeing what tragedy had befallen his good friend's family after Suharto had lost control of the govt, I suspect Mahathir's main worry would be to prevent what happened to Suharto's legacy and family to also happen to him and his family.
This risk could certainly be reduced and It would help if one of Mahathir's son becomes the Prime Minister or at least in a senior position of power - in this case, it would be Mukhriz - the only son out of the three biological sons who had gone into politics.
Mukhriz Mahathir had led a charmed life as a politician ever.
The first and only time he won a parliament seat in 2008, he was immediately given a Deputy MITI Minister post.
The first time and only time he won a state assembly seat in 2013, he was immediately made the Menteri Besar of Kedah.
This is despite contesting and failing to win UMNO youth chief in 2009 and then failing again to win Vice-President in the 2013 party elections,
The favours and opportunities given to Mukhriz despite his lack of standing and experience in the party is clear evidence that Mahathir had wanted and gotten this from Najib at that time.
However, it was only immediately after Mukhirz being rejected by UMNO for the second time that Mahathir first publicly attacked Najib.
Former Malaysian Premier Mahathir Mohamad on Monday appeared to fire the first volley of a widely anticipated attack on Prime Minister Najib Tun Razak, saying the premier’s allies in recent United Malays National Organization intraparty polls preserved their positions in the UMNO hierarchy by buying votes.
“We are told that they’ve eliminated corruption during the recent UMNO election, I am not convinced,” Mahathir told a conference at the country’s administrative capital of Putra Jaya. Although he didn’t mention Najib by name, he said: “I think there was a lot of money involved, going into the millions, and loads of people who should not be getting votes were getting votes because of the money they spent.”
Najib said Dr Mahathir wanted him to help Mukhriz win the vice-president post in the 2013 party election.
“At that time, I felt Mukhriz should perform as the Mentri Besar of Kedah, then we could assess his report card.
“He was not even the state Umno chairman, but he wanted him (Mukhriz) up there. Then the attacks began,” said Najib.
Since UMNO had already rejected Mukhriz twice before and Najib has now fallen out badly with both Mahathir and Mukhriz, it is better for both of them to leave UMNO as Mukhriz's chance of winning in the next UMNO party elections - probably in the next two years would be very slim.
Therefore, Mahathir probably believe it is better to leave UMNO and go all out to destroy the party.
And now that both Mahathir and Mukhriz is out of UMNO, most observers would note that despite failing to win twice in UMNO's party elections, Mukhris is now the Deputy President of his own political party - behind the much older Muhyiddin.
Mahathir would also be mindful about his own legacy and since he has essentially burned all bridges with Najib, Mahathir could be afraid that Najib will do what Mahathir did to Tunku Abdul Rahman (TAR).
After becoming Prime Minister, Mahathir had fallen out spectacularly with TAR - as you can see in this old video where TAR said that Mahathir is a lying traitor.
Since this falling out, TAR's legacy has been progressively erased from the history books. In fact, one of Mahathir's last action was to demolish the old Subang Airport which was perfectly functional.
After it was demolished, nothing was done on that site.
Therefore, faced with limited time to avoid what happened to Suharto and family to also happen to Mahathir, in the interest of self-preservation of his bloodlines and his legacy added to the irreparable animosity that he now has with Najib, it is paramount that Mahathir does whatever it takes to remove Najib and put in someone he can trust as Prime Minister or at least within the corridors of power.
In fact, Mahathir has never denied that he wants Mukhriz to be the future prime minister. On the contrary, in a recent interview with MalaysiaKini, he had subconsciously hinted that Mukhriz is his choice for future Prime Minister.
However, Mahathir supporters deny this. They say the ultimate proof that Mahathir does not want Mukhriz to be PM is that Mahathir did not allow his sons to be in UMNO while he was president.
This is such a weak excuse.
They said that this is why Mukhriz terpaksa buat bisnes "
LOL... first time ever saw people forced to do business and forced to own 2 listed companies.
The simple answer is this.
"When Mahathr was PM not wanting his son to be PM does not mean that when Mahathir is no longer PM, he does not want his son to be PM".
It's like when you were in primary school and have no interest in girls or boys, does not mean that when you are in secondary school, you will STILL have no interest in girls or boys.
Mahathir's plans for his children can change lah..
Like the many many U-turns that Mahathir had made - Soros, Anwar, BERSIH, LKS ....
You mean Mahathir cannot also make U-Turn about plans for his son after he stepped down as PM?
Why then is Mukhriz made the Deputy President for the new party, PPBM where his dad is Chairman?
"If Mahathir fights, he must win, tries to win. Now he is not successful, he will be more aggressive with his words," said Najib.
This is true as in the past, Mahathir had beaten Tunku Abdul Rahman, Hussein Onn, Pak Lah, Anwar, Musa Hitam, Tengku Razaleigh before.
Now that Mahathir is losing the fight against Najib, Mahathir will just become even more aggressive and desperate.
Mahathir's pristine track-record in beating others and the fact that Mahathir considers Najib to be his student would mean losing to Najib would be the ultimate humiliation. His ego won't be able to take it.
Like I said, no one is quite sure what goes on in Mahathir's mind but based on the evidence, these two motivation I listed seems the most likely why Mahathir has become desperate and willing to be a hypocrite.
One thing is for sure. Those Pakatan supporters who think Mahathir is a changed man or has repented are really very gullible and naive people. A leopard cannot change its spots. And you are talking about a 91 year old man who until now, has never apologized or shown remorse for anything that he has done before.
As the fight between him and Najib continues, let's listen to the supremely-talented Alan Perera who dedicated a song to Chedet and his fight with Najib.
I had noticed recently that Mahathir and the opposition had started attacking the weakening of the Ringgit and said this is a sign of Malaysian going bankrupt so I thought I would pen a few pointers to help Malaysians get a better perspective.
I will come back to Pascal Najadi later on in this article but in the meantime, fellow thinking Malaysians, please consider these first before you start believing their propaganda :
1. If Mahathir can peg the Ringgit at RM3.80 to the US Dollar by imposing capital controls, why can't Najib?
If Najib peg the Ringgit then you don't even have to read the rest of this article. All problem solved. All attacks by opposition on our Ringgit's strength (or weakness) stops. Everyone go home happy.
This is also a question that I have posed numerous times to Mahathir supporters and the opposition leaders but NONE of them were able to give me an answer and remained silent.
So, why didn't Najib do this?
For one, if we peg our Ringgit at a strong rate to the USD while the currencies of our major customer nations and competitors are weak then our economy will be in trouble. Foreign investors won't invest here and our major export destination will buy from our competitor nations whose currency is weaker instead. Then Malaysia WILL go into recession just to maintain Ringgit strength.
Secondly, we had already tried this before in 1998. This had resulted in major problems for Malaysia for many years which had stunted our economic growth for the longest time.
South Korea, Thailand and Indonesia who were also affected by the 1998 crisis did not peg their currency and in the following years were able to outpace Malaysia.
Have a look at the foreign investment inflow chart for Malaysia.
When you impose capital controls, investors will be scared to invest in your country. Although they can put in their money but it will hard for them to take out. This is a major turn-off for investors.
Malaysia paid the price for these capital controls then and had many years of lack of foreign investment in the early 2000s which impacted medium to long term growth in the following years.
But Mahathir didn't care as by the end of 2003, he had quit.
It is praise-worthy that Najib and his government had remained steadfast and did not take the easy and cowardly way out to peg the currency - preferring to suffer short term political pressure and slander in favour of protecting Malaysia's long-term growth and competitiveness.
Mahathir attacking our Ringgit claiming this is Najib's fault is even more funny when you consider that he had made the ringgit drop by more than half from RM2.30 to as high as RM4.88 (intra-day) before he took the easy way out and pegged it at RM3.80
And yet Mahathir still has the cheek to use the recent Ringgit weakness in his politically-motivated attacks. How shameless is this?
2. During GE13, the opposition ALSO said Malaysia is going bankrupt.
Have a look at the chart.
Najib took over in April 2009 and at that time, USD1 = RM3.73. By early May 2013 at the time of the 13th General Elections, the ringgit had strengthened to as strong as USD1 = RM2.93 - the strongest since 15 years ago in 1998
But this never stopped the opposition using "Malaysia is gong bankrupt"as a key GE13 campaign propaganda.
And now they are saying that the ringgit has weakened and this means Malaysia is going bankrupt.
So, when the ringgit is strong you say Malaysia is going bankrupt and when the Ringgit is weak, you say this is evidence that Malaysia is going bankrupt. What gives?
For 40 years, they have played this Malaysia is going bankrupt story every single year while their leaders become increasingly rich.
Don't believe me? Look at this book by DAP's Lim Kit Siang published almost 40 years ago. You can still buy this book on Amazon for US$23.
Meanwhile, the head of Perak DAP famous for saying that "Malaysians are now eating grass and sand" moved into a massive new house in 2014 which is dubbed the White House of Ipoh.
Go to any new village or suburbs in Malaysia - even the supposed lower-income ones - and you will see that their biggest problem is the lack of places to park their many cars.
3. Our Ringgit is adversely affected by low global oil prices
I wish our country can control global oil prices but it can't. The fact of the matter is that our Ringgit has an almost perfect inverse correlation with oil prices.
You can see this from the graph trends below:
This is also the reason why the Ringgit was strong in 2011-2013 due to high global oil prices.
4. Our Foreign Exchange Reserves are still strong.
In fact, it is still higher than in 2008 before Najib became PM.
Not only is it still higher but our FOREX reserves actually gained ground in previous months due to a mild recovery of oil prices and a trade surplus that is holding up pretty well. In fact, if you look at the past year, the FOREX reserves had stop plummeting and has started inching up.
The international reserves of Bank Negara Malaysia amounted to RM407.8 billion (equivalent to USD98.3 billion) as at 15 November 2016. The reserves position is sufficient to finance 8.4 months of retained imports and is 1.2 times the short-term external debt[1].
Economists normally use the benchmark of 3 months of retained imports to determine if our reserves are adequate. We are at 8.4 months.
And who would have thought that one US Dollar would soon equal to one Euro (€) when 10 years ago the US Dollar was almost half a Euro then.
And if you believe the PakaTun that the currency's strength is an indicator that a country is bankrupt then the United Kingdom must have become more bankrupter than Malaysia is already. But these PakaTun people still look up to the UK and loves to holiday there.
Despite the Ringgit's recent weakness, the Ringgit is still way stronger against the UK Pound (£) compared to 10 years ago when one Pound can fetch RM7.10. In fact, one year ago, the £ could fetch RM6.70 but today it is RM5.50.
Overall, it is not that the Ringgit is crashing due to mismanagement but the US Dollar is gaining incredible strength due to Donald Trump's recent victory, higher US Interest rates and a decline in global oil prices.
This means that Malaysia being a highly trade-dependent nation can keep our economy growing and fight off recession or slow growth by keeping our exports competitive.
Go look at the share price of export companies in Malaysia such as Top Glove and Latitude Tree whose profits have soared since late 2014 when the Ringgit started to weaken on the back of weak oil prices and strengthening US Dollar.
A strong Ringgit only benefits consumers who rely on imports and likes to go overseas for their holidays - both of which means money flows out of our country.
However, a strong Ringgit may also mean imports becoming more expensive and will drive up inflation but this is mitigated by the fact that many imports can be substituted with local equivalents - especially food. Buying local products also strengthen our economy and boosts our local producers.
Typically, there is an inverse relationship between the value of the dollar and commodity prices. When the dollar strengthens against other major currencies, the prices of commodities tend to drop. When the value of the dollar weakens against other major currencies, the prices of commodities generally move higher.
This is why you do not see all the products you buy in Malaysia suddenly becoming 30% or 40% more expensive and why stores such as McDonalds have not increased their prices even after the US Dollar had gained so much strength.
Of course there would be a period of adjustment but generally, a weaker Ringgit can and has actually benefited Malaysia.
As much as 97% of Malaysia’s external debt – both government and corporate sector – is ringgit denominated, hence our external debt is being reduced significantly in US dollar terms.
As such, Malaysia is in no danger of slipping into economic turmoil due to foreign debt as the ringgit value weakens against the US dollar – unlike the situation back in 1997 during the Asian financial crisis when most government and corporate debts were in US dollars, yen and euro.
And because foreign buyers of Malaysian debt issues – bonds, sukuk and other instruments largely denominated in ringgit – stand to lose out a lot should they cash out now.
For example, a foreign investor who invested USD1 billion in 2013 when USD1=RM3 would get RM3.3 billion which they then invest in ringgit bonds.
If they sell the RM3.3 billion bonds today, they will only get back USD740 million - less than their original USD1 billion.
If they still insist to bring their money out, the USD currency outflow from Malaysia is much less.
Most of them will hold on to the debt instruments because it is too high a loss in US dollar terms if they exit now. Because they are long term investors, most will just hold on to the debt until maturity in the hope that the ringgit value will rise again in coming years.
7. Pascal Najadi is a lying scumbag
Okay. This is not a reason why the Ringgit is weak Those who have followed my writings for some time would know that I seldom resort to such name-calling but this person deserves it.
Pascal Najadi had previously alleged PM Najib of killing his father because his father, Hussain Ahmad Najadi allegedly "knew too much" about Najib's "corrupted deals" on the basis that his father was the founder of Ambank and had access to Najib's accounts at the bank.
This accusation is despite the fact that his father had sold the bank some 30 years ago and has not been involved in the bank ever since. Or the fact that his father never once publicly raised these matters to anyone else.
Or that numerous other executives including the IT staff, counter staff and bank officers who, unlike Pascal's dad, are actually aware of Najib's accounts would similarly also have to be killed if the motive of Pascal's dad is to silence him.
Investigations over his dad's murder had been concluded and found to be related to a temple land sale dispute where the shooter has been sentenced to death. However, the mastermind who ordered the killing was not able to be charged as there was not enough evidence to build a case since the shooter refused to identify who hired him.
If Pascal had direct evidence to link the mastermind to the shooter, please submit this to the police or publicly release it. But don't simply accuse and drag the Prime Minister into this based on frivolous reasons that make no sense.
Pascal was never a Malaysian citizen and spends most of his time doing business in Russia, as he would readily admit.
Although this publicity-mad Pascal focuses almost extensively on the Russia market, he chooses to write that Malaysia's Ringgit is disappearing but somehow ignores the point that the Russian Ruble has perfomed horribly - even against the recently weakened Ringgit.
Ten years ago, each Ringgit could buy 7 Ruble. Two years ago, one Ringgit can change for 10 Rubles and today one Ringgit could change for 14.5 Rubles.
But yet, Pascal writes bullshit that the Ringgit is disappearing. If this is the case, the Russian Ruble has ALREADY disappeared and Pascal should no longer be doing business there. But yet he does.
But the biggest reason why Pascal is a scumbag is in the picture below:
The above is a picture of his father after being shot. His step-mother was also shot and injured but she cradled her dying husband right to the end.
And what does the scumbag Pascal do? He sues his stepmother to claim every single sen of his father's asset and wins!
I am using a harsh tone because I will not forgive Pascal for using the Syariah Courts to sue your late father's wife Cheong Mei Kuen and deprived her of RM1.8mil inheritance because she was not a Muslim.
To add insult to injury Mdm Chong was even forced her to pay RM500 legal costs to you.
Mdm Cheong stood with your father till the very end and was also injured in the shooting.
She held and comforted her dying husband (and your father) in her arms in a pool of blood and this is how you treat her just because of money?
If all you wanted was the money, why can't you just work things out with your step-,mom instead of suing her in the Syariah courts?
She lost everything because she married your later father in Australia but did not convert to Muslim. That is why the Syariah courts here did not recognize her marriage to your dad and she lost to you.
