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Monday, 28 November 2016

Sabar! Let's get some perspective on the recent Ringgit weakness

I was motivated to write this article due to someone sending me the following piece of misinformation written by Pascal Najadi,

I had noticed recently that Mahathir and the opposition had started attacking the weakening of the Ringgit and said this is a sign of Malaysian going bankrupt so I thought I would pen a few pointers to help Malaysians get a better perspective.

I will come back to Pascal Najadi later on in this article but in the meantime, fellow thinking Malaysians, please consider these first before you start believing their propaganda :

1. If Mahathir can peg the Ringgit at RM3.80 to the US Dollar by imposing capital controls, why can't Najib?

If Najib peg the Ringgit then you don't even have to read the rest of this article. All problem solved. All attacks by opposition on our Ringgit's strength (or weakness) stops. Everyone go home happy.

This is also a question that I have posed numerous times to Mahathir supporters and the opposition leaders but NONE of them were able to give me an answer and remained silent.

So, why didn't Najib do this?

For one, if we peg our Ringgit at a strong rate to the USD while the currencies of our major customer nations and competitors are weak then our economy will be in trouble. Foreign investors won't invest here and our major export destination will buy from our competitor nations whose currency is weaker instead. Then Malaysia WILL go into recession just to maintain Ringgit strength.

Secondly, we had already tried this before in 1998.  This had resulted in major problems for Malaysia for many years which had stunted our economic growth for the longest time. 

South Korea, Thailand and Indonesia who were also affected by the 1998 crisis did not peg their currency and in the following years were able to outpace Malaysia.

Have a look at the foreign investment inflow chart for Malaysia.

Do you see what happened in 2006 where the foreign investment into Malaysia suddenly jump? That was because in May 2006, Pak Lah unpegged the Ringgit and relaxed the capital controls on our currency.

When you impose capital controls, investors will be scared to invest in your country. Although they can put in their money but it will hard for them to take out. This is a major turn-off for investors.

Malaysia paid the price for these capital controls then and had many years of lack of foreign investment in the early 2000s which impacted medium to long term growth in the following years.

But Mahathir didn't care as by the end of 2003, he had quit.

It is praise-worthy that Najib and his government had remained steadfast and did not take the easy and cowardly way out to peg the currency - preferring to suffer short term political pressure and slander in favour of protecting Malaysia's long-term growth and competitiveness.

Mahathir attacking our Ringgit claiming this is Najib's fault is even more funny when you consider that he had made the ringgit drop by more than half from RM2.30 to as high as RM4.88 (intra-day) before he took the easy way out and pegged it at RM3.80

And yet Mahathir still has the cheek to use the recent Ringgit weakness in his politically-motivated attacks. How shameless is this?

2. During GE13, the opposition ALSO said Malaysia is going bankrupt.

Have a look at the chart.

Najib took over in April 2009 and at that time, USD1 = RM3.73. By early May 2013 at the time of the 13th General Elections, the ringgit had strengthened to as strong as USD1 = RM2.93 - the strongest since 15 years ago in 1998

But this never stopped the opposition using  "Malaysia is gong bankrupt"as a key GE13 campaign propaganda.

And now they are saying that the ringgit has weakened and this means Malaysia is going bankrupt.

So, when the ringgit is strong you say Malaysia is going bankrupt and when the Ringgit is weak, you say this is evidence that Malaysia is going bankrupt. What gives?

For 40 years, they have played this Malaysia is going bankrupt story every single year while their leaders become increasingly rich.

Don't believe me? Look at this book by DAP's Lim Kit Siang published almost 40 years ago. You can still buy this book on Amazon for US$23.

The fact is, since GE13 in 2013, one DAP founder and their current life-time adviser who was opposition MP for 30 years sold his company to Felda for RM1.3 billion while the DAP Sec-gen got a new Camry and then a new Mercedes S-Class and then bought a 10,550 square feet bungalow in an exclusive part of Penang Island with a market value of up to RM7 million.

Meanwhile, the head of Perak DAP famous for saying that "Malaysians are now eating grass and sand" moved into a massive new house in 2014 which is dubbed the White House of Ipoh.

But careful as Nga Kor Ming does not want you to distribute pictures of his house as he says it disturbs his privacy and endangers him

Not once, have the opposition ever said Malaysia economy is doing well even though the evidence of development and growth is all around us. In fact, Malaysia has the highest percentage of households in the world owning more than one car and third highest overall in the world.

Go to any new village or suburbs in Malaysia - even the supposed lower-income ones - and you will see that their biggest problem is the lack of places to park their many cars.

3. Our Ringgit is adversely affected by low global oil prices

I wish our country can control global oil prices but it can't. The fact of the matter is that our Ringgit has an almost perfect inverse correlation with oil prices.

You can see this from the graph trends below:

This is also the reason why the Ringgit was strong in 2011-2013 due to high global oil prices.

4. Our Foreign Exchange Reserves are still strong.

In fact, it is still higher than in 2008 before Najib became PM.

Not only is it still higher but our FOREX reserves actually gained ground in previous months due to a mild recovery of oil prices and a trade surplus that is holding up pretty well. In fact, if you look at the past year, the FOREX reserves had stop plummeting and has started inching up.

According to Bank Negara, as at latest available date of 15 Nov 2016, our reserves are pretty decent.

The international reserves of Bank Negara Malaysia amounted to RM407.8 billion (equivalent to USD98.3 billion) as at 15 November 2016. The reserves position is sufficient to finance 8.4 months of retained imports and is 1.2 times the short-term external debt[1].

Economists normally use the benchmark of 3 months of retained imports to determine if our reserves are adequate. We are at 8.4 months.

As a basis of comparison, the reserves of USD98.3 billion is double that of Australia's USD48.5 billion (AUS64.9 billion) and is USD100 million more than England's USD98.2 billion.

5. The US Dollar is at its strongest for 14 years against all currencies.

Also, the Chinese Renminbi is at an 8 years low versus the USD while the Indian Rupee is at its all-time record low against the USD.

And who would have thought that one US Dollar would soon equal to one Euro (€) when 10 years ago the US Dollar was almost half a Euro then.

And if you believe the PakaTun that the currency's strength is an indicator that a country is bankrupt then the United Kingdom must have become more bankrupter than Malaysia is already. But these PakaTun people still look up to the UK and loves to holiday there.

Despite the Ringgit's recent weakness, the Ringgit is still way stronger against the UK Pound (£) compared to 10 years ago when one Pound can fetch RM7.10.  In fact, one year ago, the £ could fetch RM6.70 but today it is RM5.50.

Overall, it is not that the Ringgit is crashing due to mismanagement but the US Dollar is gaining incredible strength due to Donald Trump's recent victory, higher US Interest rates and a decline in global oil prices.

6. A Weak Currency can actually benefit Malaysia

A country's exports can gain market share as its goods get cheaper relative to goods priced in stronger currencies. The resulting increases in sales can boost economic growth and jobs, as well as increase corporate profits for companies that do business in foreign markets. 

This means that Malaysia being a highly trade-dependent nation can keep our economy growing and fight off recession or slow growth by keeping our exports competitive.

This is also the reason why the USA previously wanted to go to trade wars with China as it had accused China of being a currency manipulator for making their currency cheap.

Go look at the share price of export companies in Malaysia such as Top Glove and Latitude Tree whose profits have soared since late 2014 when the Ringgit started to weaken on the back of weak oil prices and strengthening US Dollar.


A strong Ringgit only benefits consumers who rely on imports and likes to go overseas for their holidays - both of which means money flows out of our country.

However, a strong Ringgit may also mean imports becoming  more expensive and will drive up inflation but this is mitigated by the fact that many imports can be substituted with local equivalents - especially food. Buying local products also strengthen our economy and boosts our local producers.

This is also mitigated by the fact that many products and commodities that Malaysia imports have also fallen in price globally in US Dollar terms as commodities generally have a inverse (or opposite) correlation with the US Dollar strength.

Typically, there is an inverse relationship between the value of the dollar and commodity prices. When the dollar strengthens against other major currencies, the prices of commodities tend to drop. When the value of the dollar weakens against other major currencies, the prices of commodities generally move higher.

This is why you do not see all the products you buy in Malaysia suddenly becoming 30% or 40% more expensive and why stores such as McDonalds have not increased their prices even after the US Dollar had gained so much strength.

Of course there would be a period of adjustment but generally, a weaker Ringgit can and has actually benefited Malaysia.

Another point is that A weaker ringgit also lowers Malaysian foreign debt in USD terms.

As much as 97% of Malaysia’s external debt – both government and corporate sector – is ringgit denominated, hence our external debt is being reduced significantly in US dollar terms.

As such, Malaysia is in no danger of slipping into economic turmoil due to foreign debt as the ringgit value weakens against the US dollar – unlike the situation back in 1997 during the Asian financial crisis when most government and corporate debts were in US dollars, yen and euro.

And because foreign buyers of Malaysian debt issues – bonds, sukuk and other instruments largely denominated in ringgit – stand to lose out a lot should they cash out now.

For example, a foreign investor who invested USD1 billion in 2013 when USD1=RM3 would get RM3.3 billion which they then invest in ringgit bonds.

If they sell the RM3.3 billion bonds today, they will only get back USD740 million - less than their original USD1 billion.

If they still insist to bring their money out, the USD currency outflow from Malaysia is much less.

Most of them will hold on to the debt instruments because it is too high a loss in US dollar terms if they exit now. Because they are long term investors, most will just hold on to the debt until maturity in the hope that the ringgit value will rise again in coming years.

7. Pascal Najadi is a lying scumbag

Okay. This is not a reason why the Ringgit is weak Those who have followed my writings for some time would know that I seldom resort to such name-calling but this person deserves it.

Pascal Najadi had previously alleged PM Najib of killing his father because his father, Hussain Ahmad Najadi allegedly "knew too much" about Najib's "corrupted deals" on the basis that his father was the founder of Ambank and had access to Najib's accounts at the bank.

This accusation is despite the fact that his father had sold the bank some 30 years ago and has not been involved in the bank ever since. Or the fact that his father never once publicly raised these matters to anyone else. 

Or that numerous other executives including the IT staff, counter staff and bank officers who, unlike Pascal's dad, are actually aware of Najib's accounts would similarly also have to be killed if the motive of Pascal's dad is to silence him. 

Heck, Pascal even publicly said that he wants to bring the matter of his dad's murder to the United Nations!

Investigations over his dad's murder had been concluded and found to be related to a temple land sale dispute where the shooter has been sentenced to death. However, the mastermind who ordered the killing was not able to be charged as there was not enough evidence to build a case since the shooter refused to identify who hired him. 

If Pascal had direct evidence to link the mastermind to the shooter, please submit this to the police or publicly release it. But don't simply accuse and drag the Prime Minister into this based on frivolous reasons that make no sense.

Pascal was never a Malaysian citizen and spends most of his time doing business in Russia, as he would readily admit.

Although this publicity-mad Pascal focuses almost extensively on the Russia market, he chooses to write that Malaysia's Ringgit is disappearing but somehow ignores the point that the Russian Ruble has perfomed horribly - even against the recently weakened Ringgit.

Ten years ago, each Ringgit could buy 7 Ruble. Two years ago, one Ringgit can change for 10 Rubles and today one Ringgit could change for 14.5 Rubles.

But yet, Pascal writes bullshit that the Ringgit is disappearing. If this is the case, the Russian Ruble has ALREADY disappeared and Pascal should no longer be doing business there. But yet he does.

But the biggest reason why Pascal is a scumbag is in the picture below:

The above is a picture of his father after being shot. His step-mother was also shot and injured but she cradled her dying husband right to the end. 

And what does the scumbag Pascal do? He sues his stepmother to claim every single sen of his father's asset and wins!

I am using a harsh tone because I will not forgive Pascal for using the Syariah Courts to sue your late father's wife Cheong Mei Kuen and deprived her of RM1.8mil inheritance because she was not a Muslim.

To add insult to injury Mdm Chong was even forced her to pay RM500 legal costs to you.

Mdm Cheong stood with your father till the very end and was also injured in the shooting.

She held and comforted her dying husband (and your father) in her arms in a pool of blood and this is how you treat her just because of money?

If all you wanted was the money, why can't you just work things out with your step-,mom instead of suing her in the Syariah courts?

She lost everything because she married your later father in Australia but did not convert to Muslim. That is why the Syariah courts here did not recognize her marriage to your dad and she lost to you.


Saturday, 26 November 2016

Wikileaks, DC Leaks, Malaysia BERSIH, Maria Chin, SOSMA and the Ukraine Experience

This is a long blog post but a deadly serious subject like this certainly requires it.

In the middle of this year, exposes and leaks by both WikiLeaks and DC Leaks have shocked the US presidential elections. This got Hilary Clinton into a lot of trouble with the FBI. Many of these leaks also concerned George Soros' Opens Society Foundation /

2,576 files predominately related to George Soros' Open Society Foundation. The leak included the Foundation's internal work plans, strategies, priorities and other worldwide activities by Soros.

There are many references to Malaysia and a mysterious "Malaysia Program" are in these documents.

This particular document caught my eye as this review of George Soros activities towards "free and fair" elections in Malaysia alleges funding, training and assistance by George Soros to BERSIH, Merdeka Center, the BAR council and MalaysiaKini - all of whom have since publicly confirmed their links with OSF.

The document also says George Soros has a personal interest in Malaysia while it suggest that they want opposition to win but do no want to be too blatant to show that.

(click to enlarge)

It says that the OSF started working on the General Elections in 2010 in anticipation that the elections would be announced in 2011, two years after Prime Minister Najib replaced Ahmad Badawi.

Not only did OSF themselves say they have funded BERSIH activities since 2010 but they said "While the majority of support was through grant making, the Malaysia Program took on more than the traditional grantmaker’s role, and actually became the driver of the work."

Yes, Soros' foundation is the DRIVER of the "free and fair elections" movement.

Consistent with the expose of George Soros actively lobbying the USA politicians to remove Najib, it seems that these people have been working on trying to "change" Malaysia for quite some time with a deliberate plan and funding.

In their own review document, OSF themselves admitted that OSF’s support for the grantees was INSTRUMENTAL for the galvanizing of public participation and supporting civil society efforts and that OSF support was particularly impactful for youth participation with hundreds of thousands of youth mobilized.

So, OSF themselves confirmed what we had all long-suspected - That George Soros is behind BERSIH rallies.

George Soros is known to be involved in pretty much any revolution or coup around the world as well as heavily influencing politics. But these leaks provide direct evidence and show how deep and serious his involvement is.

How do we know this? Well, OSF themselves admitted this themselves in this leaked document.

So, I went back to look at the exposed internal Soros OSF documents exposed by DC Leaks and WikiLeaks.

I found many interesting revelations in these documents. Among these are:

1) OSF had admitted to be involved in many of the "coloured revolutions" around the world which OSF themselves admitted had turned violent and resulted in many deaths - including the most recent one just 2 years ago in 2014 in Ukraine.

2) In an internal memo written by the three advisors of OSF - Morton Halperin, Jerry Fowler, Jonas Rolett, OSF says that free and fair elections alone are not sufficient for a "real democracy".

3) OSF documents recommend more extensive use of media public relations (which means propaganda), lobbying western govts to apply pressure to the target country and other measures.
A separate Wikileaks expose also detailed how Soros had actively lobbied the USA Government to end support to Najib. In March 2016, Soros had met and pressured the highest powers in the USA to end support for Najib Razak as Malaysia PM. 
In a March 6 email with the subject "John Pang Memo", Vachon told Podesta: "And I think George will want to talk about this, among other things". 
Pang's memo titled "The TPP and Malaysia's Corruption Crisis" urges the Obama administration to disassociate from Najib.
It is thus not a coincident that in just 4 months time in July 2016, that the USA Department of Justice (DOJ) then moved against several people linked to Najib in a civil case with an unprecedented scathing press conference.

The John Pang mentioned in that Wikileaks expose is a Malaysian - in fact, he is the only Malaysian that sits on OSF's 23-persons Global Directors Board together with George Soros and his two sons.

John Pang is also the person who gave false information to local blogger Raja Petra Kamarrudin (RPK) 10 years ago to make that false Statutory Declaration against Najib and Rosmah to link both of them to Mongolian Altantuya's murder.  Later on, RPK realized that he was fooled and given false information by John and had to run away to the United Kingdom. In fact, he wrote about this John Pang link more than 5 years ago  - before the link between John Pang and Soros was revealed a few months ago in the Wikileaks expose.

It was also alleged that the USA Democratic govt bends over for Soros and has to make him happy (Read: Make Soros Happy! ).

Recently, the Prime Minister of Hungary Viktor Orban lashed out against the leadership of the Democratic Party, accusing them of being the pawns of a "shadow empire" operated by Hungarian-born billionaire George Soros.

4) The OSF documents also admits that Malaysia is a key target of OSF and acts as a "framework state" for OSF. They is say that Soros' has a personal interest in Malaysia.

5) OSF is the driver of the Malaysia Program and has gone beyond funding and has initiated and intensified other measures such as use of international media, lobbying of US govt and an international Public Relations firm. OSF claims to be instrumental in "bringing hundreds of thousands of Malaysians out to rally"

Western PR and media companies working with local portals and politicians are very good at helping formulate propaganda.

An example was during GE13 in 2013 when many Malaysians were absolutely convinced of 40,000 Bangladeshis voting and Blackouts.

This was later proven to be untrue by BERSIH and DAP themselves months later after the Blackout505 rallies fizzled out, who published a report that there is no such thing happening and there is no proof.

Despite this, many Malaysians still believe this propaganda but cannot answer why the opposition did not manage to capture a single phantom Bangladeshi voters out of 40,000 nor can they answer when pressed to say where an actual blackout location was.

6) OSF documents also show that they admit funding and controlling the International Renaissance Front (IRF) based in Kiev, the capital of Ukraine, which is acknowledged as the key mover to Ukraine's bloody 2014 revolution.

The 2014 revolution led to hundreds of deaths and missing people in the rallies and led to civil war and breakup of Ukraine - which has killed another 8,000 people and still continuing. This Ukraine was also led to the shooting down of our MH17.

In that same document, it stated that in Malaysia, the Chair of the OSF advisory committee is the founder of MalaysiaKini (which OSF indirectly owns and control 29% shares).

The project name for Ukraine is called "The New Ukraine" whereas the project name for Malaysia is the "Malaysia Program".

The 2014 Ukraine example of what Soros did is an eye-opener as it is so recent. I will share more on this later.

When "real democracy" came to Ukranie. Collapse of the Economy.

Just like Iraq, Egypt, Algeria, Syria and the rest which experienced revolution (and suffered hundreds of  thousands of deaths and collapse of their country) with the help of Soros and the USA and given the present of real democracy, Ukraine also received the same.

The 2014 revolution with street rallies resulting in fights with govt forces and those opposed to the rallies (like the red shirts) led to and estimated 760 dead & missing.

Casualty figures for 2014 Ukraine rallies and revolution.
(One thing that PDRM did well in the last BERSIH5/Red Shirt rallies was to pre-emptively arrest all the leaders and made great efforts to segregate both rival parties to avoid the spark of conflict flaring up - which was what happened in Ukraine where rival groups and police fought)

This was followed by the break-up of Ukraine with the secession of Crimera and a civil war that is still on-going. So far, over 8,000 people have been killed. Our Malaysian Airlines MH17 plane being shot-down over Ukraine was a result of this fighting.

Casualty figures to date for Ukraine 2014 civil war 
Because of this present of "real democracy", the Ukraine economy also collapses.

Ukraine inflation rate spikes up to 65% post 2014

Ukraine's economy has been battered and is worth less than half before the 2014 revolution - and less than what it was more than 10 years ago.

GDP growth turned negative with up to a 15% contraction.
Ukraine's currency is now worth less than 25% of what it was before 2014 "Real Democracy"
Inflation goes up to 65%, their currency is worth less than a quarter of what it was worth, the economy has dropped more than half in size and is actually smaller than it was ten years ago - undoing a decade of economic growth.

Certainly with this collapse due to the present of "real democracy", Ukraine will need saving. But who will save them?

The "Savior of Ukraine" and rebuilding their economy

Soros helps cause the collapse of Ukraine, Soros helps "rescue" Ukraine. 

Soros says he is investing USD1 billion in Ukraine.

Soros also establishes a Ukraine Redevelopment Fund under Soros Fund Management.

About Ukrainian Redevelopment Fund, LP
Ukrainian Redevelopment Fund, LP (URF) is a private investment vehicle that focuses on special situations and private equity investments in Ukraine and companies with significant operations in Ukraine. URF endeavors to make targeted investments that have the potential to promote economic and social development in Ukraine. The principal investment adviser to URF is Soros Fund Management LLC, a private investment advisor to a number of private investment funds that are managed exclusively for Soros family clients.
Soros is also invited by the the new post-revolution Ukraine Head of the Presidential Administration, Boris Lozhkin to be part of the govt's Investment Council of Ukraine.
The Person whom Soros help put in power is also the person who now invites him to sit on the board of the powerful Govt Investment Council to determine investment priorities and development policies

It is tempting to see all of Soros’ actions through the lens of investing. Buying Ukrainian IT, agriculture and energy assets at dirt cheap prices in heavily devalued currency will pay off if the country emerges from this conflict and joins the EU, something the current Prime Minister of Ukraine clearly wants.

What a great business model. Invest tens or hundreds of millions in money and technical assistance to cause regime change, make back tens of billions in profits from the collapsed aftermath. And this just happened in the year 2014.

At the same time,  US politicians also don't miss out.
Robert Hunter Biden (born February 4, 1970) is the second son of U.S. Vice President Joe Biden with hardly any business experience who was sacked from the US Navy for cocaine abuse in Feb 2014 is appointed two months later in April 2014 to the board of director of Burisma Holdings, the largest non-governmental gas producer in Ukraine, 
Some accuse the United States of maneuvering the Ukraine situation so that Western oil companies have unfettered access to shale gas (from "fracking") and to drill all across the Ukraine.

THE NDI, NED and CIA connection

After World War II, faced with threats to the USA allies and without any mechanism to channel political assistance, U.S. policy makers resorted to covert means, secretly sending advisers, equipment, and funds to support newspapers and parties under siege in Europe.

When it was revealed in the late 1960’s that some American Private Voluntary Organizations (PVOs) were receiving covert funding from the CIA to wage the battle of ideas at international forums, the Johnson Administration concluded that such funding should cease, recommending establishment of “a public-private mechanism” to fund overseas activities openly.

On Capitol Hill, Congressman Dante Fascell (D, FL) introduced a bill in April, 1967 to create an Institute of International Affairs, an initiative that would authorize overt funding for programs to promote "democratic values" - thus The National Endowment for Democracy (NED) was founded.

That is why the NED is known as the overt (or open) arm of the CIA.

The NED is structured to act as a grant-making foundation, distributing funds to private non-governmental organizations for the purpose of promoting democracy abroad.

The Endowment serves as the umbrella organization in which half of NED's funding is allocated annually to four main U.S. organizations: the American Center for International Labor Solidarity (ACILS), the Center for International Private Enterprise (CIPE), the National Democratic Institute for International Affairs (NDI), and the International Republican Institute (IRI).

Both Ambiga and Maria Chin had admitted that other than receiving funds from George Soros' OSI, BERSIH had also received funding from the NDI.

In an interview in Aug 2011, Ambiga told the 29% Soros-owned MalaysiaKini this:
"Mengenai dakwaan dana asing, Ambiga berkata kedua-dua organisasi asing itu - National Democratic Institute (NDI) dan Open Society Institute (OSI) - memberikan bantuan kewangan kepada BERSIH 2.0 tetapi khusus untuk projek masa depan yang berkaitan dengan persempadanan semula dan bukannya untuk perhimpunan tersebut." 
Maria Chin has also admitted the same line several times.

Since NDI is wholly funded by the NED, receiving funds from the NDI is the same as receiving funds directly from the NED, the overt arm of the CIA.

This is also why NED, NDI and George Soros are also banned in Russia.

This also conclusively proves that BERSIH has links with the CIA, as claimed by Annuar Musa.

In the meantime, I urge our local authorities to study the documents in the DC Leaks and Wikileaks carefully.

Or perhaps they already did, which is why they put Maria Chin under SOSMA.

Maria Chin's SOSMA detention

The police had said that her SOSMA detention is not about her organizing the BERSIH rally. This is why all the other detainees on both yellow and red sides were released except her.
The Inspector-General of Police confirms that her SOSMA detention was due to documents found during the police raid on BERSIH offices the day before the rally. They were deemed a security threat. And no, SOSMA is not for terrorists only but whatever threats - internal or external - that can harm the country on a large-scale.

The Police and the AG are not stupid and understand the huge perception impact of putting a middle-age bespectacled widow mother under detention if they had no real reason or cause for it - so the evidence and basis must be there.

On a side-note, Maria Chin's late husband Yunus Lebai Ali was a PLO commando.

In Beirut. Yunus received six months training and later he was selected to a PLO Commando Unit. The unit was an elite force specialized in fighting against the Zionists and the fascist Phalangist terrorists. A couple of years later, Yunus became one of Yasser Arafat’s bodyguards. Then in the early 1980’s, because of the civil war in Lebanon, he fled to the United Kingdom.

Later on, Mahathir had also arrested Yunus Ali in Ops Lalang in 1987 under ISA.

(and now it is strange that Mahathir came out to protest and sit by the roadside to accuse Najib, who is not the Home Minister, as zalim since the police had detained Maria for 28 days under SOSMA but Mahathir himself, who was the Home Minister then, had put her husband in jail for 1 year).

After Maria Chin's SOSMA detention, Ambiga subsequently revealed that it was Maria Chin and her husband Yunus Ali, who passed away in 2010, who are the ones who founded BERSIH and the real persons behind the yellow movement - something that Ambiga never mentioned before.

And no, contrary to propaganda out there, Maria Chin has not been ill-treated in any way. In fact, she herself has not complained about being arrested nor of being ill-treated by police.

Don't be fooled by false propaganda about her arrest which are designed to get sympathy for her.


If you think the above is far-fetched, perhaps the people in Ukraine will tell you differently. In fact, Russia, the world's other nuclear super-power takes Soros and OSF seriously enough that they actually go their prosecutor-general to issue an official statement to ban George Soros, OSF and all organizations that are linked to him.

For the sake of Malaysia, perhaps we should treat this seriously too? Better safe than really sorry.

But if you're the type who won't believe a super-power nation, the 2nd largest economy country in the world or a blogger like me and believe in Star power, why not hear it from an academy award winner actor and Angelina Jolie's father, Jon Voight talk about George Soros whom he calls "an evil, evil man".

Thursday, 24 November 2016

Kenapa tiba-tiba pembangkang diam mengenai kroni IPP dan isu kehilangan beratus bilion?

Allahyarham Tan Sri Ani Arope pernah mendedahkan, beliau dipecat daripada jawatannya sebagai Ketua Pegawai Eksekutif Tenaga Nasional Berhad (TNB) adalah kerana keengganannya untuk 'mengikut telunjuk' Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad yang ketika itu masih lagi Perdana Menteri bagi memeterai perjanjian berat sebelah dengan pengendali Penjana Tenaga Bebas (IPP).

Melalui satu wawancara sebelum pemergian beliau ke Rahmatullah pada 2014, Tan Sri Ani Arope berkata:
    Pada masa itu, TNB menjana elektrik pada harga 8 sen bagi setiap kilowatt sejam (kWh), kata Ani. Mengambil kira kos pengagihan dan penyaluran, iaitu masing-masing kira-kira 6 sen dan 3 sen pada masa itu, penyedia tenaga boleh mengagihkan elektrik kepada pengguna pada harga 17 sen bagi setiap kWh. 
    Bagi membolehkan IPP memasuki pasaran, aras harga bagi penjanaan elektrik adalah pada harga 12 sen bagi setiap kWh, kata Ani kepada Kinibiz, di mana kedua-dua pihak iaitu TNB dan IPP boleh mengadakan rundingan. 
    Namun Unit Perancang Ekonomi (di bawah Jabatan Perdana Menteri dan di bawah pentadbiran Tun Dr Mahathir), telah menetapkan sendiri harga adalah 16 sen bagi setiap kWh. Dan dengan klausa terima atau bayar, kos itu meningkat kepada 23 sen, dan saya kata kadar itu adalah mengarut. 
    Satu lagi klausa yang dianggap berat sebelah adalah harga kekal yang ditetapkan dalam perjanjian itu biarpun berlaku penurunan harga minyak di pasaran terbuka. 
    Perjanjian itu menetapkan IPP akan dibayar satu harga tetap bagi kapasiti elektrik yang dibekalkan. 
    Biarpun kita tidak menggunakan bekalan yang disalurkan, TNB perlu menerimanya atau membayarnya. Malah pada masa itu, kita mempunyai lebihan elektrik yang tidak digunakan. 
    Menganggapnya sebagai perjanjian yang mengarut, Ani enggan menandatangani perjanjian itu dan meletak jawatan. 
    Terlalu banyak klausa yang menjejaskan TNB yang saya tidak persetujui. Jika saya menandatanganinya, orang akan anggap saya juga 'sapu' atau terima bahagian saya.
Pemimpin Pakatan sebelum ini menggunakan isu ini bertahun lamanya dengan mengatakan negara ini kerugian berpuluh bilion Ringgit setiap tahun dan mendakwa pemilik IPP ini juga rakan rapat kepada Dr Mahathir atau kroni beliau.

Berikut adalah salah satu contoh:

Ketua Menteri Pulau Pinang Lim Guan Eng desak Perdana Menteri jawab skandal subsidi gas yang didedahkan oleh bekas CEO TNB Tan Sri Ani Arope.

Dan yang ini "Rafizi: IPP projek khas untuk kroni Dr Mahathir"

    Pernahkah anda terfikir mengapa Pakatan tidak lagi bising mengenai kroni IPP? Mereka kerap membesar-besarkan isu itu sebelum ini tetapi kini tidak lagi. Mengapa?

    Jawapan paling mudah untuk persoalan itu ialah, Datuk Seri Najib berjaya menyelesaikan kemelut yang dicetuskan Dr Mahathir. Pada 2012 sebenarnya.

    Pada masa lalu, Pakatan Rakyat yang sudah berkubur berkata negara akan menjimatkan RM3.47 bilion bagi pembayaran TNB kepada IPP jika gabungan pembangkang berjaya merampas Putrajaya pada Pilihanraya ke-13 (PRU13) dengan mengurangkan Kadar Pulangan Dalaman (IRR) untuk IPP daripada 19 peratus kepada 10 peratus.

    Berikut video kenyataan mereka.

    Masalah perjanjian berat sebelah IPP ini kepada kroni menjadi beban kepada Malaysia bertahun lamanya di mana beratus bilion Ringgit wang rakyat dan Petronas dibayar kepada kroni yang menjadi pemilik IPP.

    Tetapi pada tahun 2012, kerajaan memulakan tender terbuka IPP pertama dan dengan 1MDB menawarakan harga paling rendah bagi pembaharuan atau penjana tenaga baharu, ia memaksa pembida lain untuk merendahkan harga mereka secara dramatik. Ia membuktikan kerajaan berjaya melakukannya berbanding janji pemimpin pembangkang.

    Maybank mengumumkan era keuntungan berat sebelah bagi IPP sudah berakhir dan IRR bagi IPP kini adalah antara 5 hingga 6 peratus, lebih rendah daripada 19 peratus sebelum ini malah lebih rendah daripada apa yang dijanjikan pembangkang iaitu pada 10 peratus. Untuk itu, penjimatan TNB adalah lebih besar setiap tahun berbanding apa yang dijanjikan pembangkang.

    Satu tarif berbeza biarpun satu sen sahaja memberikan perbezaan yang amat ketara bagi perjanjian konsesi 20 tahun, contohnya perbezaan satu sen pada satu IPP akan mengurangkan kos elektrik kepada RM2.9 bilion.

    Jika kita melihat kepada carta di bawah, keuntungan TNB lebih baik, daripada kerugian kepada keuntungan dan kerajaan tidak lagi perlu membayar ganti rugi kepada TNB secara berkala, di mana pada 2012, kerajaan terpaksa membayar RM2.2 bilion.

    Memandangkan Khazanah, PNB, Kumpulan Wang Simpanan Pekerja (KWSP), Tabung Haji dan lain-lain mempunyai saham dalam TNB, ia turut memberi kesan keuntungan untuk rakyat dan bukan lagi kroni yang memiliki IPP tersebut.

    Tetapi pemimpin Pakatan juga tidak menceritakan keseluruhannya. Mereka lupa berpuluh bilion Ringgit subsidi gas perlu diberikan Petronas kepada IPP terbabit bagi memastikan kadar kepada TNB rendah.

    Harga gas subsidi (RM/mmBTU) bagi penjanaan elektrik daripada Petronas meningkat daripada RM6.40 pada 2008 kepada RM18.20 pada 2016, tiga kali ganda kenaikan. Harga pada masa lalu adalah di atas RM40.

    Penjimatan ini daripada perjanjian yang lebih baik bagi IPP telah disalurkan kepada pengurangan subsidi gas dan meningkatkan pendapatan penjualan gas berjumlah berbilion Ringgit setiap tahun bagi Petronas tanpa sebarang kenaikan harga elektrik daripada 2011 hingga 2014, biarpun TNB memperoleh pendapatan yang lebih baik dan Petronas berjaya menjimatkan berbilion Ringgit setiap tahun.

    Berapa banyak Petronas rugi bagi subsidi kepada IPP melalui perjanjian berat sebelah ini pada masa lalu?

    Jawapan ini boleh diperolehi daripada laman 63 di Laporan Tahunan Petronas bagi 2015.

    Menjelang akhir tahun 2015, Petronas mengumumkan kerugian hingga RM155 bilion dalam pendapatan kepada sektor penjanaan tenaga berikutan subsidi gas yang terpaksa dipatuhi pada Mei 1997.

    Jumlah RM155 bilion itu sepatutnya boleh diperolehi Petronas dan kerajaan bagi program pembangunan bagi manfaat rakyat dan bukannya untuk Dr Mahathir memaksa Petronas untuk subsidi perjanjian berat sebelah dengan IPP milik kroninya.

    Melalui carta di atas, kita dapat lihat penyusutan bagi hasil yang hilang; bermakna pendapatan bagi Petronas meningkat sejak penstrukturan IPP tahun 2012.

    Tidak dapat dinafikan kewujudan 1MDB mengubah lanskap industri IPP dengan pembidaan yang agresif melalui tender terbuka pertama pada 2012 dan bidaan seterusnya di mana 1MDB adalah pembida paling rendah bagi setiap projek penjana tenaga yang diceburinya.

    Penjimatan ini yang sebelum ini terpaksa dibayar kepada IPP kemudiannya disalurkan kepada pendapatan lebih tinggi bagi Petronas, TNB dan kemudiannya kepada kerajaan dan rakyat dan bukan lagi kepada pemilik IPP yang tidak menguntungkan rakyat langsung.

    Dan ini adalah IPP yang sama dimiliki kroni melalui perjanjian berat sebelah dan subsidi gas yang tinggi dan terpaksa ditanggung Petronas.
    Tarif Talian Hayat bagi pengguna yang menggunakan hingga 200 kWh/sebulan melibatkan 70 peratus isirumah tidak berubah sejak 1997. Ia juga bebas dari Cukai Barangan dan Perkhidmatan (GST).

    Sebarang perubahan kepada bil elektrik anda adalah berikutan penggunaan lebih banyak tenaga daripada sebelum ini.

    Bermula dari tahun 2010, isirumah yang menggunakan elektrik di bawah RM20 tidak lagi membayar sesen pun. Faedah diberikan kerajaan ini masih lagi dikuatkuasakan.

    Maka, janganlah mendakwa 1MDB atau kerajaan tidak melakukan sebarang kebaikan kerana jika tidak berpuluh bilion Ringgit akan hanya memanfaatkan kroni yang menjadi pemilik IPP malah jika dihitung bagi tempoh 10 hingga 20 tahun, ia melibatkan ratusan bilion Ringgit.

    Ia kini dimanfaatkan untuk kerajaan dan rakyat.

    Suatu propaganda yang sering digunakan oleh pembangkang ialah yang dipaparkan di Option A (kiri) gambarajah dibawah di mana kononnya, sebelum 1MDB, ada beberapa IPP yang dimilik Malaysia tetapi selepas 1MDB ia dimilik negara Cina.

    Sebenarnya, propaganda pembangkang yang popular ini adalah salah. Sebelum 1MDB, IPP-IPP ini tidak pernah dimilik kerajaan tetapi milik kroni-kroni tertentu dengan perjanjian berat sebelah yang amat merugikan rakyat dan kerajaan.

    Selepas perjanjian-perjankian ini dibetulkan, barulah dibuat "tender terbuka" yang lebih telus dimana pembida dari negara Cina muncul sebagai pembida tertinggi.

    Yang mana lebih menguntungkan rakyat dan negara? Pilihan A atau  B?

    Pilihan A di kiri, di mana pemilik-pemilik IPP ini adalah kroni swasta dengan perjanjian yang berat sebelah dan amat merugikan rakyat dan negara berpuluh bilion Ringgit setiap tahun?

    Ataupun Pilihan B di sebelah kanan di mana perjanjiannya jauh lebih adil kepada rakyat dan negara tetapi pemiliknya ialah pelabur asing yang membawa dana asing masuk ke negara?

    Tentulah B pilihan kita. Yang sokong A itu mungkin penyokong tegar kroni atau membantah hanya kerana mahu membangkang.

    Ini adalah salah satu legasi Dr Mahathir yang diperbetulkan oleh kerajaan dipimpin Datuk Seri Najib. Satu lagi ialah pengambilalihan 100 peratus Lebuhraya Utara Selatan (PLUS) oleh kerajaan dan KWSP.

    Melalui pengambilalihan ini, pendapatan yang dijana daripada kutipan tol akan disalurkan kepada kerajaan (51 peratus) atau pemegang akaun KWSP (49 peratus) dan bukan lagi masuk ke poket kroni.

    Itu juga faktor mengapa tol Lebuhraya Utara Selatan tidak berubah bagi tempoh 11 tahun sejak 2005.

    Jika kerajaan hari ini tidak mengambilalih syarikat PLUS pada 2011 dan merunding semula perjanjian konsesi tol yang dilaksanakan ketika zaman Dr Mahathir, sudah tentu perjalanan anda dari Jalan Duta ke Ipoh akan dikenakan tol daripada RM26.50 hari ini kepada RM82.17 menjelang 2038.

    Wednesday, 23 November 2016

    Ever Wondered why Pakatan never talks about the lop-sided "crony" IPP agreements anymore?

    The late Tan Sri Ani Arope said he was fired from his job as TNB Chairman then because he refused to "play ball" with Tun Mahathir in cutting lop-sided deals with the Independent Power Plant operators.

    In an interview conducted just months before his death in 2014, Tan Sri Ani Arope said:
    "At the time TNB were producing electricity at eight sen per kilowatt hour (kWh), said Ani. Taking into account transmission and distribution costs — which were about six sen and three sen respectively at the time — the power distributor can deliver electricity to consumers at just 17 sen per kWh. 
    For IPPs to come in, the acceptable benchmark price for electricity production would have been 12 sen per kWh, said Ani to KiniBiz, which TNB and the IPPs can negotiate around.“But the EPU decided on 16 sen per kWh,” he said to KiniBiz adding that with a take-or-pay clause, the costs jumped to 23 sen. “I said this is ridiculous.” 
    Another detrimental clause in the PPA was the fixed price for fuel regardless of fluctuations on the open market. 
    In essence, the PPAs state that the IPPs would be paid a fixed capacity payment regularly regardless of whether TNB needs to buy the power or not.
    TNB would also be obligated to cover the difference if the price of fuel — used to generate electricity — rises beyond the agreed price in the PPA. 
    This effectively insulated the IPPs from market forces and guarantees a fixed margin of profit at TNB’s expense, the latter bearing disproportionate risk. 
    Calling the eventual PPA arrangement ridiculous, Ani refused to sign and subsequently resigned. 
    “There were many clauses detrimental to TNB (that I couldn’t agree to),” said Ani to KiniBiz. “If I (had) signed, people would have said that I also ‘sapu’ (get a cut),” 
    It was then-prime minister Mahathir that put him out to pasture, said Ani, for his refusal to play ball. “He (Mahathir) indicated that I should resign within a week of not signing.”
    The Pakatan used to make this as such a big big issue over many years saying it loses our country tens or billions in Ringgit every year and alleging that the owners of these power plants so happen to be Mahathir's close friends or "cronies".

    Here is one of many, many examples : Ketua Menteri Pulau Pinang Lim Guan Eng desak Perdana Menteri jawab skandal subsidi gas yang didedahkan oleh bekas CEO TNB Tan Sri Ani Arope.

     But now Pakatan have gone completely quiet on this issue. Why?

    The short answer is that Najib had solved this problem. In 2012, actually.

    Previously, the now-dead Pakatan Rakyat said it will achieve annual savings of RM3.47 billion on Tenaga Nasional Bhd (TNB) payments to independent power producers (IPPs) if the coalition takes over Putrajaya in GE13 by reducing the Internal Rate of Return guaranteed returns to IPP form 19% to 10%. (see video)

    This problem of lop-sided IPP deals to past cronys had been a big issue to Malaysians for years where hundreds of billions of ringgit of Rakyat (via TNB) and Petronas money was diverted to the cronies.

    But in the year 2012, the govt had it's first ever open tender for IPP and together with 1MDB which bid the lowest price for each renewal or new IPP and forced the other bidders to lower down their bids dramatically, the govt did even better than what Pakatan promised!

    (Click on images above to read the first 3 pages of their full report)

    Maybank proclaimed that the era of sweetheart deals for IPPs are no more and that the IRR for the IPPs are now at between 5%-6% - much lower than the previous 19% and even lower than Pakatan's promised 10%. Therefore, the savings per year to TNB is even greater than what Pakatan promised.

    A tariff difference by even a single sen makes a huge difference over a 20-year concession period, for one IPP plant a single sen difference can reduce tariff costs by RM2.9 billion.

    That is why you can see from the chart, TNB profits have now improved substantially - swinging from a loss to record profits and govt no longer need to compensate TNB periodically, which govt did with RM2.2 billion in 2012.

    Since Khazanah, PNB, KWSP, Tabung Haji etc and most of the mutual funds have shares in TNB, the improved profits directly translates to money in the pocket for the Rakyat - instead of to the crony IPP owners.

    But Pakatan also missed part of the story. They forgot that the tens of billions ringgit of gas subsidies that Petronas had to give the IPPs to keep rates to TNB lower.

    The subsidized gas price (RM/mmBTU)_for electricity generation from Petronas went up from RM6.40 in 2008 to RM18.20 to 2016, a 3 fold increase. The market price was mostly above RM40 then.

    These savings from better IPP deals have gone to reduced gas subsidies and increased gas revenues (in the billions per year) for Petronas without a similarly high increase in electricity prices in 2011 and 2014 - despite TNB making much bigger profits and Petronas saving billions per year.

    How much Petronas had lost due to subsidizing the IPPs in the lop-sided deals of the past?

    The answer is actually in page 63 of Petronas 2015 annual report.

    By the end of 2015, Petronas said it had lost RM155 billion in revenue to the power-generation sector due to the gas subsidies forced upon them in May 1997.

    RM155 billion that could have gone to Petronas and the govt for development programs instead of having Mahathir making Petronas subsidize the lop-sided IPPs.

    With the increase in gas prices charged to the IPPs, you can clearly see a decline in the lost revenues of Petronas.

    There is little doubt that 1MDB had helped shake up the IPP industry with it's aggressive bidding in the first ever open tender for PPA in 2012 and also subsequent IPP bids where 1MDB was always the lowest qualified bidder for every IPP project it went into.

    These savings from paying the previously very lucrative IPPs were then channeled into higher revenues for Petronas, TNB and eventually to the government and the Rakyat instead of to the profits of the IPP private owners.

    And this is the same for the IPPs that were previously owned by crony (with lopsided deals and high gas subsidies) and now sold to China (without lopsided deals and lower gas subsidies).

    The Life-Line Tariff for consumers who use up to 200 kWh/month affecting 70% of households have not changed since 1997. It is also GST-free.

    Any change in your electricity bill is probably because you use much more electricity compared to before.

    From the year 2010 onward, households with electricity bills below RM20 no longer pay a single cent. This benefit is still on-going.

    So don't say that 1MDB or govt has not done anything good as tens of billions that would have gone to the IPP cronys EVERY year now goes to the govt and to the rakyat - this could easily amount to hundreds of billions of ringgit over 10 to 20 years.

    This is one of the more important legacy issues that has been corrected by Najib's government. The other would be the 2011 take-over by the Government and EPF of 100% of PLUS Highways, which means that any revenue collected from toll either goes to the government (51%) or to EPF account holders (49%) and no longer to private "cronies". 

    This is also why the North South Highway tolls have not increased for 11 years since 2005. If Najib's govt had not done the 100% take-over in 2011 and renegotiated the toll concession agreement, based on the original Mahathir concession agreement, your toll charges for the Jalan Duta to Ipoh stretch would have jumped from RM26.50 today to RM83.17 by the year 2038.