Total Pageviews

Saturday, 26 November 2016

Wikileaks, DC Leaks, Malaysia BERSIH, Maria Chin, SOSMA and the Ukraine Experience

This is a long blog post but a deadly serious subject like this certainly requires it.

In the middle of this year, exposes and leaks by both WikiLeaks and DC Leaks have shocked the US presidential elections. This got Hilary Clinton into a lot of trouble with the FBI. Many of these leaks also concerned George Soros' Opens Society Foundation /

2,576 files predominately related to George Soros' Open Society Foundation. The leak included the Foundation's internal work plans, strategies, priorities and other worldwide activities by Soros.

There are many references to Malaysia and a mysterious "Malaysia Program" are in these documents.

This particular document caught my eye as this review of George Soros activities towards "free and fair" elections in Malaysia alleges funding, training and assistance by George Soros to BERSIH, Merdeka Center, the BAR council and MalaysiaKini - all of whom have since publicly confirmed their links with OSF.


The document also says George Soros has a personal interest in Malaysia while it suggest that they want opposition to win but do no want to be too blatant to show that.

(click to enlarge)

It says that the OSF started working on the General Elections in 2010 in anticipation that the elections would be announced in 2011, two years after Prime Minister Najib replaced Ahmad Badawi.

Not only did OSF themselves say they have funded BERSIH activities since 2010 but they said "While the majority of support was through grant making, the Malaysia Program took on more than the traditional grantmaker’s role, and actually became the driver of the work."

Yes, Soros' foundation is the DRIVER of the "free and fair elections" movement.

Consistent with the expose of George Soros actively lobbying the USA politicians to remove Najib, it seems that these people have been working on trying to "change" Malaysia for quite some time with a deliberate plan and funding.

In their own review document, OSF themselves admitted that OSF’s support for the grantees was INSTRUMENTAL for the galvanizing of public participation and supporting civil society efforts and that OSF support was particularly impactful for youth participation with hundreds of thousands of youth mobilized.

So, OSF themselves confirmed what we had all long-suspected - That George Soros is behind BERSIH rallies.

George Soros is known to be involved in pretty much any revolution or coup around the world as well as heavily influencing politics. But these leaks provide direct evidence and show how deep and serious his involvement is.

How do we know this? Well, OSF themselves admitted this themselves in this leaked document.

So, I went back to look at the exposed internal Soros OSF documents exposed by DC Leaks and WikiLeaks.

I found many interesting revelations in these documents. Among these are:

1) OSF had admitted to be involved in many of the "coloured revolutions" around the world which OSF themselves admitted had turned violent and resulted in many deaths - including the most recent one just 2 years ago in 2014 in Ukraine.

2) In an internal memo written by the three advisors of OSF - Morton Halperin, Jerry Fowler, Jonas Rolett, OSF says that free and fair elections alone are not sufficient for a "real democracy".

3) OSF documents recommend more extensive use of media public relations (which means propaganda), lobbying western govts to apply pressure to the target country and other measures.
A separate Wikileaks expose also detailed how Soros had actively lobbied the USA Government to end support to Najib. In March 2016, Soros had met and pressured the highest powers in the USA to end support for Najib Razak as Malaysia PM. 
In a March 6 email with the subject "John Pang Memo", Vachon told Podesta: "And I think George will want to talk about this, among other things". 
Pang's memo titled "The TPP and Malaysia's Corruption Crisis" urges the Obama administration to disassociate from Najib.
It is thus not a coincident that in just 4 months time in July 2016, that the USA Department of Justice (DOJ) then moved against several people linked to Najib in a civil case with an unprecedented scathing press conference.

The John Pang mentioned in that Wikileaks expose is a Malaysian - in fact, he is the only Malaysian that sits on OSF's 23-persons Global Directors Board together with George Soros and his two sons.

John Pang is also the person who gave false information to local blogger Raja Petra Kamarrudin (RPK) 10 years ago to make that false Statutory Declaration against Najib and Rosmah to link both of them to Mongolian Altantuya's murder.  Later on, RPK realized that he was fooled and given false information by John and had to run away to the United Kingdom. In fact, he wrote about this John Pang link more than 5 years ago  - before the link between John Pang and Soros was revealed a few months ago in the Wikileaks expose.

It was also alleged that the USA Democratic govt bends over for Soros and has to make him happy (Read: Make Soros Happy! ).

Recently, the Prime Minister of Hungary Viktor Orban lashed out against the leadership of the Democratic Party, accusing them of being the pawns of a "shadow empire" operated by Hungarian-born billionaire George Soros.

4) The OSF documents also admits that Malaysia is a key target of OSF and acts as a "framework state" for OSF. They is say that Soros' has a personal interest in Malaysia.

5) OSF is the driver of the Malaysia Program and has gone beyond funding and has initiated and intensified other measures such as use of international media, lobbying of US govt and an international Public Relations firm. OSF claims to be instrumental in "bringing hundreds of thousands of Malaysians out to rally"

Western PR and media companies working with local portals and politicians are very good at helping formulate propaganda.

An example was during GE13 in 2013 when many Malaysians were absolutely convinced of 40,000 Bangladeshis voting and Blackouts.

This was later proven to be untrue by BERSIH and DAP themselves months later after the Blackout505 rallies fizzled out, who published a report that there is no such thing happening and there is no proof.

Despite this, many Malaysians still believe this propaganda but cannot answer why the opposition did not manage to capture a single phantom Bangladeshi voters out of 40,000 nor can they answer when pressed to say where an actual blackout location was.

6) OSF documents also show that they admit funding and controlling the International Renaissance Front (IRF) based in Kiev, the capital of Ukraine, which is acknowledged as the key mover to Ukraine's bloody 2014 revolution.

The 2014 revolution led to hundreds of deaths and missing people in the rallies and led to civil war and breakup of Ukraine - which has killed another 8,000 people and still continuing. This Ukraine was also led to the shooting down of our MH17.

In that same document, it stated that in Malaysia, the Chair of the OSF advisory committee is the founder of MalaysiaKini (which OSF indirectly owns and control 29% shares).


The project name for Ukraine is called "The New Ukraine" whereas the project name for Malaysia is the "Malaysia Program".

The 2014 Ukraine example of what Soros did is an eye-opener as it is so recent. I will share more on this later.

When "real democracy" came to Ukranie. Collapse of the Economy.

Just like Iraq, Egypt, Algeria, Syria and the rest which experienced revolution (and suffered hundreds of  thousands of deaths and collapse of their country) with the help of Soros and the USA and given the present of real democracy, Ukraine also received the same.

The 2014 revolution with street rallies resulting in fights with govt forces and those opposed to the rallies (like the red shirts) led to and estimated 760 dead & missing.

Casualty figures for 2014 Ukraine rallies and revolution.
(One thing that PDRM did well in the last BERSIH5/Red Shirt rallies was to pre-emptively arrest all the leaders and made great efforts to segregate both rival parties to avoid the spark of conflict flaring up - which was what happened in Ukraine where rival groups and police fought)

This was followed by the break-up of Ukraine with the secession of Crimera and a civil war that is still on-going. So far, over 8,000 people have been killed. Our Malaysian Airlines MH17 plane being shot-down over Ukraine was a result of this fighting.

Casualty figures to date for Ukraine 2014 civil war 
Because of this present of "real democracy", the Ukraine economy also collapses.

 
Ukraine inflation rate spikes up to 65% post 2014

Ukraine's economy has been battered and is worth less than half before the 2014 revolution - and less than what it was more than 10 years ago.

GDP growth turned negative with up to a 15% contraction.
Ukraine's currency is now worth less than 25% of what it was before 2014 "Real Democracy"
Inflation goes up to 65%, their currency is worth less than a quarter of what it was worth, the economy has dropped more than half in size and is actually smaller than it was ten years ago - undoing a decade of economic growth.

Certainly with this collapse due to the present of "real democracy", Ukraine will need saving. But who will save them?

The "Savior of Ukraine" and rebuilding their economy

Soros helps cause the collapse of Ukraine, Soros helps "rescue" Ukraine. 


Soros says he is investing USD1 billion in Ukraine.

Soros also establishes a Ukraine Redevelopment Fund under Soros Fund Management.

About Ukrainian Redevelopment Fund, LP
Ukrainian Redevelopment Fund, LP (URF) is a private investment vehicle that focuses on special situations and private equity investments in Ukraine and companies with significant operations in Ukraine. URF endeavors to make targeted investments that have the potential to promote economic and social development in Ukraine. The principal investment adviser to URF is Soros Fund Management LLC, a private investment advisor to a number of private investment funds that are managed exclusively for Soros family clients.
    
Soros is also invited by the the new post-revolution Ukraine Head of the Presidential Administration, Boris Lozhkin to be part of the govt's Investment Council of Ukraine.
The Person whom Soros help put in power is also the person who now invites him to sit on the board of the powerful Govt Investment Council to determine investment priorities and development policies

It is tempting to see all of Soros’ actions through the lens of investing. Buying Ukrainian IT, agriculture and energy assets at dirt cheap prices in heavily devalued currency will pay off if the country emerges from this conflict and joins the EU, something the current Prime Minister of Ukraine clearly wants.

What a great business model. Invest tens or hundreds of millions in money and technical assistance to cause regime change, make back tens of billions in profits from the collapsed aftermath. And this just happened in the year 2014.

At the same time,  US politicians also don't miss out.
Robert Hunter Biden (born February 4, 1970) is the second son of U.S. Vice President Joe Biden with hardly any business experience who was sacked from the US Navy for cocaine abuse in Feb 2014 is appointed two months later in April 2014 to the board of director of Burisma Holdings, the largest non-governmental gas producer in Ukraine, 
Some accuse the United States of maneuvering the Ukraine situation so that Western oil companies have unfettered access to shale gas (from "fracking") and to drill all across the Ukraine.

THE NDI, NED and CIA connection

After World War II, faced with threats to the USA allies and without any mechanism to channel political assistance, U.S. policy makers resorted to covert means, secretly sending advisers, equipment, and funds to support newspapers and parties under siege in Europe.

When it was revealed in the late 1960’s that some American Private Voluntary Organizations (PVOs) were receiving covert funding from the CIA to wage the battle of ideas at international forums, the Johnson Administration concluded that such funding should cease, recommending establishment of “a public-private mechanism” to fund overseas activities openly.

On Capitol Hill, Congressman Dante Fascell (D, FL) introduced a bill in April, 1967 to create an Institute of International Affairs, an initiative that would authorize overt funding for programs to promote "democratic values" - thus The National Endowment for Democracy (NED) was founded.

That is why the NED is known as the overt (or open) arm of the CIA.

The NED is structured to act as a grant-making foundation, distributing funds to private non-governmental organizations for the purpose of promoting democracy abroad.

The Endowment serves as the umbrella organization in which half of NED's funding is allocated annually to four main U.S. organizations: the American Center for International Labor Solidarity (ACILS), the Center for International Private Enterprise (CIPE), the National Democratic Institute for International Affairs (NDI), and the International Republican Institute (IRI).

Both Ambiga and Maria Chin had admitted that other than receiving funds from George Soros' OSI, BERSIH had also received funding from the NDI.

In an interview in Aug 2011, Ambiga told the 29% Soros-owned MalaysiaKini this:
"Mengenai dakwaan dana asing, Ambiga berkata kedua-dua organisasi asing itu - National Democratic Institute (NDI) dan Open Society Institute (OSI) - memberikan bantuan kewangan kepada BERSIH 2.0 tetapi khusus untuk projek masa depan yang berkaitan dengan persempadanan semula dan bukannya untuk perhimpunan tersebut." 
Maria Chin has also admitted the same line several times.


Since NDI is wholly funded by the NED, receiving funds from the NDI is the same as receiving funds directly from the NED, the overt arm of the CIA.

This is also why NED, NDI and George Soros are also banned in Russia.

This also conclusively proves that BERSIH has links with the CIA, as claimed by Annuar Musa.

In the meantime, I urge our local authorities to study the documents in the DC Leaks and Wikileaks carefully.

Or perhaps they already did, which is why they put Maria Chin under SOSMA.


Maria Chin's SOSMA detention

The police had said that her SOSMA detention is not about her organizing the BERSIH rally. This is why all the other detainees on both yellow and red sides were released except her.
The Inspector-General of Police confirms that her SOSMA detention was due to documents found during the police raid on BERSIH offices the day before the rally. They were deemed a security threat. And no, SOSMA is not for terrorists only but whatever threats - internal or external - that can harm the country on a large-scale.

The Police and the AG are not stupid and understand the huge perception impact of putting a middle-age bespectacled widow mother under detention if they had no real reason or cause for it - so the evidence and basis must be there.

On a side-note, Maria Chin's late husband Yunus Lebai Ali was a PLO commando.
 

In Beirut. Yunus received six months training and later he was selected to a PLO Commando Unit. The unit was an elite force specialized in fighting against the Zionists and the fascist Phalangist terrorists. A couple of years later, Yunus became one of Yasser Arafat’s bodyguards. Then in the early 1980’s, because of the civil war in Lebanon, he fled to the United Kingdom.

Later on, Mahathir had also arrested Yunus Ali in Ops Lalang in 1987 under ISA.

(and now it is strange that Mahathir came out to protest and sit by the roadside to accuse Najib, who is not the Home Minister, as zalim since the police had detained Maria for 28 days under SOSMA but Mahathir himself, who was the Home Minister then, had put her husband in jail for 1 year).

After Maria Chin's SOSMA detention, Ambiga subsequently revealed that it was Maria Chin and her husband Yunus Ali, who passed away in 2010, who are the ones who founded BERSIH and the real persons behind the yellow movement - something that Ambiga never mentioned before.


And no, contrary to propaganda out there, Maria Chin has not been ill-treated in any way. In fact, she herself has not complained about being arrested nor of being ill-treated by police.

Don't be fooled by false propaganda about her arrest which are designed to get sympathy for her.


CONCLUSION

If you think the above is far-fetched, perhaps the people in Ukraine will tell you differently. In fact, Russia, the world's other nuclear super-power takes Soros and OSF seriously enough that they actually go their prosecutor-general to issue an official statement to ban George Soros, OSF and all organizations that are linked to him.



For the sake of Malaysia, perhaps we should treat this seriously too? Better safe than really sorry.

But if you're the type who won't believe a super-power nation, the 2nd largest economy country in the world or a blogger like me and believe in Star power, why not hear it from an academy award winner actor and Angelina Jolie's father, Jon Voight talk about George Soros whom he calls "an evil, evil man".

Thursday, 24 November 2016

Kenapa tiba-tiba pembangkang diam mengenai kroni IPP dan isu kehilangan beratus bilion?

Allahyarham Tan Sri Ani Arope pernah mendedahkan, beliau dipecat daripada jawatannya sebagai Ketua Pegawai Eksekutif Tenaga Nasional Berhad (TNB) adalah kerana keengganannya untuk 'mengikut telunjuk' Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad yang ketika itu masih lagi Perdana Menteri bagi memeterai perjanjian berat sebelah dengan pengendali Penjana Tenaga Bebas (IPP).

Melalui satu wawancara sebelum pemergian beliau ke Rahmatullah pada 2014, Tan Sri Ani Arope berkata:
    Pada masa itu, TNB menjana elektrik pada harga 8 sen bagi setiap kilowatt sejam (kWh), kata Ani. Mengambil kira kos pengagihan dan penyaluran, iaitu masing-masing kira-kira 6 sen dan 3 sen pada masa itu, penyedia tenaga boleh mengagihkan elektrik kepada pengguna pada harga 17 sen bagi setiap kWh. 
    Bagi membolehkan IPP memasuki pasaran, aras harga bagi penjanaan elektrik adalah pada harga 12 sen bagi setiap kWh, kata Ani kepada Kinibiz, di mana kedua-dua pihak iaitu TNB dan IPP boleh mengadakan rundingan. 
    Namun Unit Perancang Ekonomi (di bawah Jabatan Perdana Menteri dan di bawah pentadbiran Tun Dr Mahathir), telah menetapkan sendiri harga adalah 16 sen bagi setiap kWh. Dan dengan klausa terima atau bayar, kos itu meningkat kepada 23 sen, dan saya kata kadar itu adalah mengarut. 
    Satu lagi klausa yang dianggap berat sebelah adalah harga kekal yang ditetapkan dalam perjanjian itu biarpun berlaku penurunan harga minyak di pasaran terbuka. 
    Perjanjian itu menetapkan IPP akan dibayar satu harga tetap bagi kapasiti elektrik yang dibekalkan. 
    Biarpun kita tidak menggunakan bekalan yang disalurkan, TNB perlu menerimanya atau membayarnya. Malah pada masa itu, kita mempunyai lebihan elektrik yang tidak digunakan. 
    Menganggapnya sebagai perjanjian yang mengarut, Ani enggan menandatangani perjanjian itu dan meletak jawatan. 
    Terlalu banyak klausa yang menjejaskan TNB yang saya tidak persetujui. Jika saya menandatanganinya, orang akan anggap saya juga 'sapu' atau terima bahagian saya.
Pemimpin Pakatan sebelum ini menggunakan isu ini bertahun lamanya dengan mengatakan negara ini kerugian berpuluh bilion Ringgit setiap tahun dan mendakwa pemilik IPP ini juga rakan rapat kepada Dr Mahathir atau kroni beliau.

Berikut adalah salah satu contoh:

Ketua Menteri Pulau Pinang Lim Guan Eng desak Perdana Menteri jawab skandal subsidi gas yang didedahkan oleh bekas CEO TNB Tan Sri Ani Arope.

Dan yang ini "Rafizi: IPP projek khas untuk kroni Dr Mahathir"

    Pernahkah anda terfikir mengapa Pakatan tidak lagi bising mengenai kroni IPP? Mereka kerap membesar-besarkan isu itu sebelum ini tetapi kini tidak lagi. Mengapa?

    Jawapan paling mudah untuk persoalan itu ialah, Datuk Seri Najib berjaya menyelesaikan kemelut yang dicetuskan Dr Mahathir. Pada 2012 sebenarnya.

    Pada masa lalu, Pakatan Rakyat yang sudah berkubur berkata negara akan menjimatkan RM3.47 bilion bagi pembayaran TNB kepada IPP jika gabungan pembangkang berjaya merampas Putrajaya pada Pilihanraya ke-13 (PRU13) dengan mengurangkan Kadar Pulangan Dalaman (IRR) untuk IPP daripada 19 peratus kepada 10 peratus.

    Berikut video kenyataan mereka.


    Masalah perjanjian berat sebelah IPP ini kepada kroni menjadi beban kepada Malaysia bertahun lamanya di mana beratus bilion Ringgit wang rakyat dan Petronas dibayar kepada kroni yang menjadi pemilik IPP.

    Tetapi pada tahun 2012, kerajaan memulakan tender terbuka IPP pertama dan dengan 1MDB menawarakan harga paling rendah bagi pembaharuan atau penjana tenaga baharu, ia memaksa pembida lain untuk merendahkan harga mereka secara dramatik. Ia membuktikan kerajaan berjaya melakukannya berbanding janji pemimpin pembangkang.


    Maybank mengumumkan era keuntungan berat sebelah bagi IPP sudah berakhir dan IRR bagi IPP kini adalah antara 5 hingga 6 peratus, lebih rendah daripada 19 peratus sebelum ini malah lebih rendah daripada apa yang dijanjikan pembangkang iaitu pada 10 peratus. Untuk itu, penjimatan TNB adalah lebih besar setiap tahun berbanding apa yang dijanjikan pembangkang.

    Satu tarif berbeza biarpun satu sen sahaja memberikan perbezaan yang amat ketara bagi perjanjian konsesi 20 tahun, contohnya perbezaan satu sen pada satu IPP akan mengurangkan kos elektrik kepada RM2.9 bilion.

    Jika kita melihat kepada carta di bawah, keuntungan TNB lebih baik, daripada kerugian kepada keuntungan dan kerajaan tidak lagi perlu membayar ganti rugi kepada TNB secara berkala, di mana pada 2012, kerajaan terpaksa membayar RM2.2 bilion.


    Memandangkan Khazanah, PNB, Kumpulan Wang Simpanan Pekerja (KWSP), Tabung Haji dan lain-lain mempunyai saham dalam TNB, ia turut memberi kesan keuntungan untuk rakyat dan bukan lagi kroni yang memiliki IPP tersebut.

    Tetapi pemimpin Pakatan juga tidak menceritakan keseluruhannya. Mereka lupa berpuluh bilion Ringgit subsidi gas perlu diberikan Petronas kepada IPP terbabit bagi memastikan kadar kepada TNB rendah.

    Harga gas subsidi (RM/mmBTU) bagi penjanaan elektrik daripada Petronas meningkat daripada RM6.40 pada 2008 kepada RM18.20 pada 2016, tiga kali ganda kenaikan. Harga pada masa lalu adalah di atas RM40.


    Penjimatan ini daripada perjanjian yang lebih baik bagi IPP telah disalurkan kepada pengurangan subsidi gas dan meningkatkan pendapatan penjualan gas berjumlah berbilion Ringgit setiap tahun bagi Petronas tanpa sebarang kenaikan harga elektrik daripada 2011 hingga 2014, biarpun TNB memperoleh pendapatan yang lebih baik dan Petronas berjaya menjimatkan berbilion Ringgit setiap tahun.

    Berapa banyak Petronas rugi bagi subsidi kepada IPP melalui perjanjian berat sebelah ini pada masa lalu?

    Jawapan ini boleh diperolehi daripada laman 63 di Laporan Tahunan Petronas bagi 2015.


    Menjelang akhir tahun 2015, Petronas mengumumkan kerugian hingga RM155 bilion dalam pendapatan kepada sektor penjanaan tenaga berikutan subsidi gas yang terpaksa dipatuhi pada Mei 1997.

    Jumlah RM155 bilion itu sepatutnya boleh diperolehi Petronas dan kerajaan bagi program pembangunan bagi manfaat rakyat dan bukannya untuk Dr Mahathir memaksa Petronas untuk subsidi perjanjian berat sebelah dengan IPP milik kroninya.

    Melalui carta di atas, kita dapat lihat penyusutan bagi hasil yang hilang; bermakna pendapatan bagi Petronas meningkat sejak penstrukturan IPP tahun 2012.

    Tidak dapat dinafikan kewujudan 1MDB mengubah lanskap industri IPP dengan pembidaan yang agresif melalui tender terbuka pertama pada 2012 dan bidaan seterusnya di mana 1MDB adalah pembida paling rendah bagi setiap projek penjana tenaga yang diceburinya.

    Penjimatan ini yang sebelum ini terpaksa dibayar kepada IPP kemudiannya disalurkan kepada pendapatan lebih tinggi bagi Petronas, TNB dan kemudiannya kepada kerajaan dan rakyat dan bukan lagi kepada pemilik IPP yang tidak menguntungkan rakyat langsung.

    Dan ini adalah IPP yang sama dimiliki kroni melalui perjanjian berat sebelah dan subsidi gas yang tinggi dan terpaksa ditanggung Petronas.
    Tarif Talian Hayat bagi pengguna yang menggunakan hingga 200 kWh/sebulan melibatkan 70 peratus isirumah tidak berubah sejak 1997. Ia juga bebas dari Cukai Barangan dan Perkhidmatan (GST).

    Sebarang perubahan kepada bil elektrik anda adalah berikutan penggunaan lebih banyak tenaga daripada sebelum ini.

    Bermula dari tahun 2010, isirumah yang menggunakan elektrik di bawah RM20 tidak lagi membayar sesen pun. Faedah diberikan kerajaan ini masih lagi dikuatkuasakan.

    Maka, janganlah mendakwa 1MDB atau kerajaan tidak melakukan sebarang kebaikan kerana jika tidak berpuluh bilion Ringgit akan hanya memanfaatkan kroni yang menjadi pemilik IPP malah jika dihitung bagi tempoh 10 hingga 20 tahun, ia melibatkan ratusan bilion Ringgit.

    Ia kini dimanfaatkan untuk kerajaan dan rakyat.

    Suatu propaganda yang sering digunakan oleh pembangkang ialah yang dipaparkan di Option A (kiri) gambarajah dibawah di mana kononnya, sebelum 1MDB, ada beberapa IPP yang dimilik Malaysia tetapi selepas 1MDB ia dimilik negara Cina.


    Sebenarnya, propaganda pembangkang yang popular ini adalah salah. Sebelum 1MDB, IPP-IPP ini tidak pernah dimilik kerajaan tetapi milik kroni-kroni tertentu dengan perjanjian berat sebelah yang amat merugikan rakyat dan kerajaan.

    Selepas perjanjian-perjankian ini dibetulkan, barulah dibuat "tender terbuka" yang lebih telus dimana pembida dari negara Cina muncul sebagai pembida tertinggi.

    Yang mana lebih menguntungkan rakyat dan negara? Pilihan A atau  B?

    Pilihan A di kiri, di mana pemilik-pemilik IPP ini adalah kroni swasta dengan perjanjian yang berat sebelah dan amat merugikan rakyat dan negara berpuluh bilion Ringgit setiap tahun?

    Ataupun Pilihan B di sebelah kanan di mana perjanjiannya jauh lebih adil kepada rakyat dan negara tetapi pemiliknya ialah pelabur asing yang membawa dana asing masuk ke negara?

    Tentulah B pilihan kita. Yang sokong A itu mungkin penyokong tegar kroni atau membantah hanya kerana mahu membangkang.

    Ini adalah salah satu legasi Dr Mahathir yang diperbetulkan oleh kerajaan dipimpin Datuk Seri Najib. Satu lagi ialah pengambilalihan 100 peratus Lebuhraya Utara Selatan (PLUS) oleh kerajaan dan KWSP.

    Melalui pengambilalihan ini, pendapatan yang dijana daripada kutipan tol akan disalurkan kepada kerajaan (51 peratus) atau pemegang akaun KWSP (49 peratus) dan bukan lagi masuk ke poket kroni.

    Itu juga faktor mengapa tol Lebuhraya Utara Selatan tidak berubah bagi tempoh 11 tahun sejak 2005.

    Jika kerajaan hari ini tidak mengambilalih syarikat PLUS pada 2011 dan merunding semula perjanjian konsesi tol yang dilaksanakan ketika zaman Dr Mahathir, sudah tentu perjalanan anda dari Jalan Duta ke Ipoh akan dikenakan tol daripada RM26.50 hari ini kepada RM82.17 menjelang 2038.

    Wednesday, 23 November 2016

    Ever Wondered why Pakatan never talks about the lop-sided "crony" IPP agreements anymore?

    The late Tan Sri Ani Arope said he was fired from his job as TNB Chairman then because he refused to "play ball" with Tun Mahathir in cutting lop-sided deals with the Independent Power Plant operators.

    In an interview conducted just months before his death in 2014, Tan Sri Ani Arope said:
    "At the time TNB were producing electricity at eight sen per kilowatt hour (kWh), said Ani. Taking into account transmission and distribution costs — which were about six sen and three sen respectively at the time — the power distributor can deliver electricity to consumers at just 17 sen per kWh. 
    For IPPs to come in, the acceptable benchmark price for electricity production would have been 12 sen per kWh, said Ani to KiniBiz, which TNB and the IPPs can negotiate around.“But the EPU decided on 16 sen per kWh,” he said to KiniBiz adding that with a take-or-pay clause, the costs jumped to 23 sen. “I said this is ridiculous.” 
    Another detrimental clause in the PPA was the fixed price for fuel regardless of fluctuations on the open market. 
    In essence, the PPAs state that the IPPs would be paid a fixed capacity payment regularly regardless of whether TNB needs to buy the power or not.
    TNB would also be obligated to cover the difference if the price of fuel — used to generate electricity — rises beyond the agreed price in the PPA. 
    This effectively insulated the IPPs from market forces and guarantees a fixed margin of profit at TNB’s expense, the latter bearing disproportionate risk. 
    Calling the eventual PPA arrangement ridiculous, Ani refused to sign and subsequently resigned. 
    “There were many clauses detrimental to TNB (that I couldn’t agree to),” said Ani to KiniBiz. “If I (had) signed, people would have said that I also ‘sapu’ (get a cut),” 
    It was then-prime minister Mahathir that put him out to pasture, said Ani, for his refusal to play ball. “He (Mahathir) indicated that I should resign within a week of not signing.”
    The Pakatan used to make this as such a big big issue over many years saying it loses our country tens or billions in Ringgit every year and alleging that the owners of these power plants so happen to be Mahathir's close friends or "cronies".

    Here is one of many, many examples : Ketua Menteri Pulau Pinang Lim Guan Eng desak Perdana Menteri jawab skandal subsidi gas yang didedahkan oleh bekas CEO TNB Tan Sri Ani Arope.

     But now Pakatan have gone completely quiet on this issue. Why?

    The short answer is that Najib had solved this problem. In 2012, actually.

    Previously, the now-dead Pakatan Rakyat said it will achieve annual savings of RM3.47 billion on Tenaga Nasional Bhd (TNB) payments to independent power producers (IPPs) if the coalition takes over Putrajaya in GE13 by reducing the Internal Rate of Return guaranteed returns to IPP form 19% to 10%. (see video)


    This problem of lop-sided IPP deals to past cronys had been a big issue to Malaysians for years where hundreds of billions of ringgit of Rakyat (via TNB) and Petronas money was diverted to the cronies.

    But in the year 2012, the govt had it's first ever open tender for IPP and together with 1MDB which bid the lowest price for each renewal or new IPP and forced the other bidders to lower down their bids dramatically, the govt did even better than what Pakatan promised!


    (Click on images above to read the first 3 pages of their full report)

    Maybank proclaimed that the era of sweetheart deals for IPPs are no more and that the IRR for the IPPs are now at between 5%-6% - much lower than the previous 19% and even lower than Pakatan's promised 10%. Therefore, the savings per year to TNB is even greater than what Pakatan promised.

    A tariff difference by even a single sen makes a huge difference over a 20-year concession period, for one IPP plant a single sen difference can reduce tariff costs by RM2.9 billion.

    That is why you can see from the chart, TNB profits have now improved substantially - swinging from a loss to record profits and govt no longer need to compensate TNB periodically, which govt did with RM2.2 billion in 2012.


    Since Khazanah, PNB, KWSP, Tabung Haji etc and most of the mutual funds have shares in TNB, the improved profits directly translates to money in the pocket for the Rakyat - instead of to the crony IPP owners.

    But Pakatan also missed part of the story. They forgot that the tens of billions ringgit of gas subsidies that Petronas had to give the IPPs to keep rates to TNB lower.

    The subsidized gas price (RM/mmBTU)_for electricity generation from Petronas went up from RM6.40 in 2008 to RM18.20 to 2016, a 3 fold increase. The market price was mostly above RM40 then.


    These savings from better IPP deals have gone to reduced gas subsidies and increased gas revenues (in the billions per year) for Petronas without a similarly high increase in electricity prices in 2011 and 2014 - despite TNB making much bigger profits and Petronas saving billions per year.

    How much Petronas had lost due to subsidizing the IPPs in the lop-sided deals of the past?

    The answer is actually in page 63 of Petronas 2015 annual report.

    By the end of 2015, Petronas said it had lost RM155 billion in revenue to the power-generation sector due to the gas subsidies forced upon them in May 1997.

    RM155 billion that could have gone to Petronas and the govt for development programs instead of having Mahathir making Petronas subsidize the lop-sided IPPs.

    With the increase in gas prices charged to the IPPs, you can clearly see a decline in the lost revenues of Petronas.

    There is little doubt that 1MDB had helped shake up the IPP industry with it's aggressive bidding in the first ever open tender for PPA in 2012 and also subsequent IPP bids where 1MDB was always the lowest qualified bidder for every IPP project it went into.

    These savings from paying the previously very lucrative IPPs were then channeled into higher revenues for Petronas, TNB and eventually to the government and the Rakyat instead of to the profits of the IPP private owners.

    And this is the same for the IPPs that were previously owned by crony (with lopsided deals and high gas subsidies) and now sold to China (without lopsided deals and lower gas subsidies).

    The Life-Line Tariff for consumers who use up to 200 kWh/month affecting 70% of households have not changed since 1997. It is also GST-free.

    Any change in your electricity bill is probably because you use much more electricity compared to before.

    From the year 2010 onward, households with electricity bills below RM20 no longer pay a single cent. This benefit is still on-going.

    So don't say that 1MDB or govt has not done anything good as tens of billions that would have gone to the IPP cronys EVERY year now goes to the govt and to the rakyat - this could easily amount to hundreds of billions of ringgit over 10 to 20 years.

    This is one of the more important legacy issues that has been corrected by Najib's government. The other would be the 2011 take-over by the Government and EPF of 100% of PLUS Highways, which means that any revenue collected from toll either goes to the government (51%) or to EPF account holders (49%) and no longer to private "cronies". 

    This is also why the North South Highway tolls have not increased for 11 years since 2005. If Najib's govt had not done the 100% take-over in 2011 and renegotiated the toll concession agreement, based on the original Mahathir concession agreement, your toll charges for the Jalan Duta to Ipoh stretch would have jumped from RM26.50 today to RM83.17 by the year 2038.

    Saturday, 1 October 2016

    Fast 7: To the Malaysians who are now in Australia...

    I had noticed that many former or current Malaysians who have now moved to Australia likes to continually attack the Malaysian government over several issues, which is normally propagated by the PakaTun politicians.

    Among these issues which they like to use to whack Malaysia are these 7 :

    1.  Malaysia is going bankrupt due to high household debts.


    This is the most strange as the commonly cited Malaysia's household debt to GDP is 89%. But Australia's ratio just overtook Switzerland and Denmark (both of which is about 120% too) to became the highest in the world earlier this year at 125.2%.


    If you don't like to read graphs then you can read about it here in the article titled "How Australian households became the most indebted in the world".


    2.  Malaysia is going bankrupt due to high government debts.

    They say that Najib has increased the govt debt greatly since he became PM and that the Govt debt to ratio has jumped 13% from 41.24% in 2008 to 53.9% now. This was mainly due to the Great Global Recession that started that year and Najib did some pump priming to save Malaysia from a bad recession when he took over.


    However, what is lost to those Malaysians in Australia is that the Govt Debt-to-GDP ratio in Australia also jumped since 2008.

    In fact, it jumped more - 25% from 11.7% to 36.8%.


    Looking at the current trend and the fact that the Australia economy is struggling now due to the slump in commodity prices and reduced demand from China, many believe that this will continue to grow and could overtake Malaysia soon - whereas Malaysia's ratio has been relatively stable over the past few years.

    But the thing is, Malaysia is far from going bankrupt even at 53.9% as at current ratio, there are 71 other countries way ahead of Malaysia in terms of Govt Debt-to-GDP ratio indluign Japan, France, USA, Germany, UK etc.

    Also, Malaysia had a ratio of 103.4% in 1985 so if Malaysia did not go bankrupt then, how is it that we go bankrupt now at 53.9%?

    3.  Malaysia is going bankrupt due to high External (Foreign) debts.

    Well, Malaysia doesn't owe any money to IMF and World Bank (we cleared these decades ago). Based on the expanded definition from 2 years ago to comply with international standards which includes foreign ownership of bonds and bank deposits in Malaysia owned by foreigners, Malaysia's external debt is now RM846 billion - or about 66% of our GDP.

    But Australians should know that their gross external debt is now AUD 1.94 TRILLION or about RM6,130 billion - this is about 120% of Australia's GDP of AUD1.62 trillion.

    In fact, foreigners own a huge piece of Australia.

    A country's international investment position (IIP) is a financial statement setting out the value and composition of that country's external financial assets and liabilities. A positive NIIP value indicates a nation is a creditor nation, while a negative value indicates it is a debtor nation.

    A news missed out by most people at the end of 2015 is that due to the Ringgit depreciation in 2014 and 2015, the fact that the majority of our government debt is in Ringgit and our continued trade surplus, Malaysia reverted to a net creditor nation status in the year 2015 - certainly very different from what PakaTun saying that we are bankrupt or failed state.

    What this means is that Malaysia owns more assets overseas than foreigners own in Malaysia - meaning Malaysia is very good at investing abroad.

    There is only a very short list of countries of probably 18 major countries in the world who are in a net creditor status.

    And as at end of last year, Malaysia is one of them.

    Australia does very poor in this area. Australia's net IIP liability position (as opposed to surplus in Malaysia) was A$1,012.1b at 31 March 2016, an increase of A$51.4b (5%) on the revised 31 December 2015 position of A$960.8b. 


    4.  Malaysia is losing competitiveness and their foreign trade is suffering.

    Actually, Malaysia has consistently been exporting more than it imports. In fact, July's trade surplus, despite low oil and gas prices, marks Malaysia's 225th consecutive month of trade surpluses recorded since November 1997.


    Australia trade balance fluctuates quite a bit and has been in trade deficits recently - including a deficit of AUD 2.41 billion in July of 2016, As you can see from the graph, the Aussie trade balance frequently enters negative territory 



    5.  Malaysia's economy will be destroyed due to implementing GST

    Of course this is utter bullshit since 170+ countries have already implemented GST or will implement it by 2018.

    Australia's GST rate of 10% was implemented in the year 2000 - a full 15 years before Malaysia implemented ours at 6% in 2015.


    Let's not even talk about comparing personal or corporate tax - we all know Australia's tax rate is much higher than in Malaysia.


    6.  Because of Najib, Malaysia is experiencing a big drop in foreign reserves as investors pull out money - that is why Malaysia's currency is shite.

    Well, did you know that Malaysia's FOREX reserves at USD97.7 billion is more than double of   Australia? USD47,3 billion as at end August 2016?

    Well, now you know.

    In fact, it may surprise you that since Najib took over as PM in April 2009, the Aussie Dollar actually hasn't changed much against the Ringgit - and in fact spent much of its time being lower against the Ringgit until only the past two months where the Aussie dollar recovered some ground.



    7.  Recent gun murders shows Malaysia is unsafe

    Well, there were a few sporadic cases hat happened which our police have mostly solved.

    Comparing gun murders is not pretty but then Australians should know that both Melbourne and Sydney have seen gun shootings and deaths spike over he past year.

    You can read the article Scary trend in Australian gun crime with more than 200 shooting deaths a year

    And then there are those Malaysian-Australians who would say that there are extremists in Malaysia but You’ll Never Guess Which Country Is the Biggest Per Capita Contributor of Foreign Fighters to ISIS.  It isn't Malaysia, the Middle East or Central Asia or even in Europe. It's Down Under

    Other little facts also show that Malaysia's nominal GDP growth is faster, Australia's unemployment rate is higher, you are more likely to afford having maid here in Malaysia and also if you are an Asian (or a Muslim), you'll more likely to run into racism or racist taunts on the streets of Australia than you would in Malaysia.

    And those fighting for the rights to have vernacular education in Malaysia while over there in Australia would note that there are no vernacular schooling system in Australia.

    Some even parrot the opposition line about the cost of the pandas in Malaysia saying we are wasting money but are ignorant that Australia also received pandas from China where they pay the exact same amounts to China since it is a uniform worldwide policy. But like I had written before, the Panda diplomacy  in giving pandas to countries they most favour actually have big trade benefits far outweighing whatever cost you pay.

    Of course, being a ex-Malaysian or a Malaysian now staying in Australia gives you the right to criticize Malaysia but please do criticize based on actual facts and don't parrot the lines of the PakaTun propaganda here in Malaysia coz if you drill-down, you may get embarrassed by the hard facts.

    But really, there is little need to whack your ex-country as you already made your choice where to call home - especially if your main source of propaganda and "news" about Malaysian has been these online portals and FB postings from the Red Bean Army cybertroopers. Here are some recent examples of these propaganda online:

    1. If you repeat them enough times (Part 1)
    2. My reply to "Tun Daim"
    3. Answering A Kadir Jasin


    As with all the other countries in the world, both places have their pros and cons.

    Australia has excellent Mediterranean weather though - especially in the coastal cities.

    But our durians are much better (yes, Australia also grows durians).
    ---

    Saturday, 3 September 2016

    Answering A Kadir Jasin's "Kewangan Kerajaan Pusat genting"

    Yesterday, I had posted a reply to the irresponsible fake "Tun Daim" whatsapp message that is circulating. I had pointed out that the message sole purpose seems to be spreading lies to incite hatred and fears about the economy which would stop people from spending and investing - a self-fulfiling prophecy that if left unchecked, will cause damage to our economy.

    Today, yet another stalwart of Mahathir has published an article in Sinar Harian that also seems to have the same purpose as the "Tun Daim" message.

    A Kadir Jasin, a long-time Mahathir supporter, said that Malaysia's government debt had increased from RM250 billion in 2010 to RM656 billion in June this year.

    Well, A Kadir is wrong. The govt debt in 2010 is RM407.1 billion or 53.15% of our GDP. How can Kadir make such a shocking mistake or was he trying to deceive?

    Even at RM656 billion, our government debt is still within the 55% debt to GDP ratio limit as our economy has expanded since 2010.

    Does Kadir also realize the size of Malaysia's GDP/economy today is almost 3 1/2 times the size of what it was when Mahathir retired in 2003?


    As long as our ratio is within limits, the overall debt can grow as our yearly income and economy size will also grow.

    A simple illustration to show this:

    Who is more likely to go bankrupt first?

    A person whose income is RM36k per year but  have debt of RM40k (Malaysia's GDP in 1987 is USD36 billion and govt debt was USD40 billion) or a person whose income is now RM350k per year and have debt of RM130k? 
    Even though the actual debt amount is now 3 times more but the person whose income is RM36k per year will go bankrupt first.

    Here is an excerpt from the 2012 book "Malaysia's Development Challenges: Graduating from the Middle". You can also google for Malaysia's debt-to-GDP in the 1980s and what Mahathir did in his first 7 years in charge.


    We did not go bankrupt and our country crash and burn at more than 100% Debt-to-GDP so why should we go bankrupt now at 55%?

    Here is a more comprehensive chart showing this relationship:


    As mentioned yesterday, according to the CIA's world factbook, Malaysia at 54% is at 71st place in the countries with the highest debt to GDP ratio.

    According to PakaTun logic, this means that these 70 countries will have to go bankrupt before Malaysia's turn.

    JAPAN, ZIMBABWE, GREECE, LEBANON, ITALY, PORTUGAL, ERITREA, JAMAICA, CABO VERDE, GRENADA, CYPRUS, BELGIUM, SINGAPORE, PUERTO RICO, IRELAND, BARBADOS, SPAIN, BHUTAN, FRANCE, CANADA, UKRAINE, SAO TOME AND PRINCIPE, YEMEN, EGYPT, UNITED KINGDOM, CROATIA, ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA, EUROPEAN UNION, AUSTRIA, SAINT KITTS AND NEVIS, ICELAND, BELIZE, JORDAN, SAINT LUCIA, GHANA, HUNGARY, SERBIA, SRI LANKA, UNITED STATES, MOROCCO, ALBANIA, MALDIVES, SUDAN, MONGOLIA, GERMANY, DOMINICA, NETHERLANDS, URUGUAY, GUYANA, BRAZIL, SAINT VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES, ARUBA, BAHRAIN, EL SALVADOR, PAKISTAN, ISRAEL, SLOVENIA, FINLAND, MAURITIUS, MALAWI, MALTA, ZAMBIA, COSTA RICA, MONTENEGRO, MOZAMBIQUE, THE BAHAMAS, SYRIA, ANGOLA, SENEGAL, SEYCHELLES.

    Those who hate our government and wishes for Malaysia will just simply have to wait in line behind those countries mentioned above.

    Kadir also said that Malaysia is running a budget deficit but conceded that it has reduced from 6.7% in 2009 to 3.2% in 2015.

    But does Kadir know that Najib ran a bigger deficit in 2009 and 2010 to save our economy from the Great Global Recession (the worst since the Great Depression in the 1930s) but since 2011, have run a deficit that is smaller (and getting increasingly smaller) compared to the last 5 years that Mahathir ran the country up to 2003?


    As you can see, Malaysia's budget deficit is getting progressively smaller due to good management. This is why the World Bank and IMF praises Najib's government on economic management and the major international credit ratings agencies all have A- investment grade ratings and a stable outlook for Malaysia.

    If Kadir really wants to warn someone regarding unrestrained government spending then I suggest he writes an open letter to Mahathir's allies in the DAP Penang Government as their state annual spending has jumped many folds since they took over in 2008. They are definitely more in need of an "A Kadir Jasin" warning.


    Kadir ended his article with saying that the government should be truthful to the rakyat on the true state of the economy and that the "Ekonomi tidak berbohong" or "The economy doesn't lie".

    I agree but he did not say that Mahathir's supporters won't lie when writing about the economy.

    Mahathir supporters and the opposition are the ones who should be truthful on the true state of the economy instead of inciting fears based on false data or faulty interpretation.

    Najib saved us from the Great Recession following the US Sub-prime crash in the 2007-2008. By all accounts and data (instead of air liur), the economy has been well managed despite a big slump in oil revenues amidst the commodities crash in second half 2014 until now.

    Let's have confidence that Najib's government will continue to steer us well. He has not failed like Mahathir had.

    Throughout Mahathir's 22 years in charge, he led us through two very severe recessions in the mid 1980s and in 1998 and three major slowdowns - the last of which was just before he retired.

    In the face of the current BREXIT and the China slowdown, which are global issues, it is better for people like Kadir and their gang to support and instill confidence in the economy rather than trying to intentionally or inadvertently harm the economy.

    I wrote this yesterday but will repeat it again:

    The opposition frequently spread false, misleading lies such as this to destroy confidence in what is known as a "self-fulfilling prophecy". Imagine if everyone believe what is in this message then no one will spend and if no one will spend then all the shops will close down, he factories will also close down and then the banks will close down and et cetera. Somewhere along the line, you and I and everyone else will also lose their jobs or business.

    Therefore, spreading such lies is not helpful to Malaysia but you are harming Malaysia and ourselves.

    These people don't care what happens to Malaysia as long as they get what they want. They think that if the economy is bad then it is easier for them to win power. These people are despicable.

    Do not fall for their lies and spread such negative messages to incite hate, create fear which will eventually end up hurting ourselves.

    Stop it, you fake hateful people with hidden agenda.

    Trying to destroy your own country's economy and bringing harm to tens of millions just for your political agenda is not only treachery but brings to mind the following saying.

    "Don't cut off your nose to spite your face."