Suspension of accounts and Najib's position

Was out since noon and wow, so many private messages via FB asking about my opinion on the joint task-force suspension of six accounts and also what will happen to PM Najib.

One of the 9 pages released by WSJ today - why are critical names blanked out?

Okay, I have been keeping abreast but now I have had the time to further understand the documents and today's development.

These are my comments:

1) Are you sure those WSJ documents are verified authentic by the relevant authorities? No one has issued any statements to confirm the documents are genuine and validated yet.

They are after all, still paper documents given by unidentified sources.

2) The WSJ documents suggest that all three accounts allegedly under PM Najib's name were not in control by PM but by Nik Faisal via a power of attorney.

Why would PM allow other people to control his accounts allegedly worth billions? hmmm...

3) Under UMNO party arrangements, the President is allowed to hold party funds in trust under his own name - a practice apparently dating back to Tun M's time.

It was believed previously that UMNO is rich and owned, via proxy, many companies such as Fleet Group, Renong, UEM, Media Prima,Peremba group, Utusan, KUB etc

Where has all this money gone to now?

4) The money allegedly transferred from 100% MOF owned SRC International was for CSR activities. Thus if the board has explicitly allowed SRC International to allocate funds for CSR then giving money to Ihsan Perdana would not be out of place.

Many other 100% MOF-owned companies such as Khaznah, Petronas, 1MDB also do CSR.

The amount of CSR done by SRC seems to be exactly 1% (RM40m) of their RM4 billion funds - a reasonable amount.

Although Ihsan Perdana has already denied last week that these funds were transferred to PM or to any individual, even if Ihsan Perdana funds were eventually transferred to those under PM's name (which is controlled by someone else), it is important to know if these funds were indeed eventually given or spent on actual CSR activities.

5)  The source of the USD700m (RM2.6b) still remains unknown and undisclosed by the WSJ documents.

Sarawak Report and WSJ had suggested that these funds came from the 1MDB-GIL USD3b bonds raised in May 2013. However, so far the PAC or the two independent international auditors have found no evidence or cast doubt that this GIL funds are missing.

Even PKR's Datuk Kamarul Baharin Abbas who sits on the PAC finds the WSJ story unbelievable and said “The PAC has not received any report on the 1MDB money trail involving such large sum."

The main purpose of these GIL funds were supposed to go into a ADMIC JV with Aabar. These funds were also earmarked to be included in the USD4.5b asset-swap between Abu Dhabi Govt's IPIC and 1MDB that will see 1MDB's debt reduced by RM16b.

IPIC had already announced this to the London Stock Exchange a couple of weeks back.

6) The USAGE and subsequent whereabouts of these alleged RM2.6bil funds remains unknown.

Where these spent on foundations, Yayasan, CSR and election activities or were any remaining amounts (and how much) subsequently transferred back to other UMNO accounts?

But one thing is clear, these accounts were also controlled under power of attorney by other people too - not solely by PM Najib.

Of course, many people still think it is absolutely illogical that if he wanted to songlap, he would bring money already safe in an offshore account overseas back into Malaysia under his own name.

7) Suspension of accounts is normal in any investigations. If you don't suspend then how to investigate?

Mere suspension does not mean guilt at all.

In fact, it is now clear that under PM Najib, all allegations are fairly and openly investigated instead of being swept under the carpet like the past PM of 22 years where he was never investigated even though numerous allegations were thrown at him.

6) Are you sure any of the six accounts suspended today belongs to Najib? There have been no official confirmation on this although Mkini reported this.

However, I heard otherwise.

In fact, WSJ has now said those accounts suspended may not be Najib's accounts. So, whose accounts got suspended?

Citing source, WSJ said bank accounts frozen in 1MDB-Najib probe different from report

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PM Najib's position

As for whether PM Najib can remain in power although he has yet to be found guilty of anything?

Don't write him off so easily yet. It's far from a foregone conclusion.

Still here: "Yes, I am still Prime Minister"

With GE14 many years away and the UMNO party elections postponed to after GE14, the only three ways that can remove Najib as PM now are:

1) Two-thirds of UMNO's Supreme Council calling for an EGM to remove the President.

• This is unlikely because more than 2/3 are still strongly with PM Najib and continues to support him as party president and PM. 

• In fact, many UMNO members are now angry at Tun M for disturbing and trying to expose BN's funding machinery and also, in their opinion,, hurting UMNO-BN's interest by (allegedly) collaborating with internal enemies (such as ANAK Felda / PAS) and external enemies such as WSJ, NYT and Srawak Report.

2) Vote of no confidence in Parliament or impeachment. 

• Unlikely coz PM will probably threaten to dissolve parliament straightaway which would scare the BN MPs. Thus the 134 BN MPs would vote "No" in parliament for this motions as they want to continue remaining in power amidst fears they will lose in elections right now. 

• Since calling for snap elections is what DAP wants right now, BN MPs will further resist this move and not give DAP what they want.

3) DPM consulting YDP Agong together with Attorney-General to recommend suspending or sacking Najib.

• This would be the most likely scenario PROVIDED, AG determines there is a case to charge Najibl AND  

• DPM wanting to make this move and he believes he has enough support from the UMNO Supreme Council to do so.  

• If he does not have such support, the Supreme Council will probably "kill off" Muhyiddin and put in place the more popular Zahid Hamidi.

Mere allegations of scandals have never removed a sitting PM in Malaysia before.

The 'fail safes' put into place in the system by Tun M in his 22 years are too effective.

Thank you so much, Tun.

You Da Man! Thank you so much for the fail-safes, Tun.

If the various investigations into 1MDB and these alleged money-flows clears Najib and he goes after his enemies via clampdowns or law-suit, Najib may emerge stronger than ever.

We shall see.

Three years is a long time to GE14.

Remember during the 1987, team A vs team B split in UMNO and with elections just two years later, many people thought BN would lose?

End up BN won in 1999 with a 2/3 majority.

Even during GE13 in 2014, 52% of people (and many of the 47%) were also absolutely convinced that BN would lose.

But the final results were not even close! BN ended up wining 133 vs 89 seats.

And Pakatan being dead or weak or pengsan along with UMNO's improving ties with PAS will only serve to strengthen UMNO and BN.

PM Najib thanks Pakatan for killing themselves

Incidentally, The Malaysian Inciter today pretty much suggested that the opposition's tendency to self-destruct has helped Najib stay in power and likely continue to help him stay in power in GE14.

Therefore, the games have only started.

At the moment, PM Najib does not seem to be in any immediate danger of being removed at all.